{ "date": "2026-08-21", "generated_at": "2026-08-21T08:10:37.770175", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-21", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 147, "matched_count": 124, "unmatched_count": 23 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 124, "grouped_pitcher_count": 23, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 124, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:13.874Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2128, "model_under_probability": 0.7872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5638, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4362, "edge_over": -0.4026, "edge_under": 0.311, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.311, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:36.874Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1391, "model_under_probability": 0.8609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5302, "edge_over": -0.3584, "edge_under": 0.2995, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2995, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2528, "model_under_probability": 0.7472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.344, "edge_under": 0.2842, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2842, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2528, "model_under_probability": 0.7472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.344, "edge_under": 0.2842, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2842, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1391, "model_under_probability": 0.8609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.3371, "edge_under": 0.2776, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2776, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1391, "model_under_probability": 0.8609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.3371, "edge_under": 0.2776, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2776, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:50.291Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2528, "model_under_probability": 0.7472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5638, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4362, "edge_over": -0.3626, "edge_under": 0.271, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.271, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:57.291Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1493, "model_under_probability": 0.8507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.3224, "edge_under": 0.2639, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2639, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:13.874Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3234, "model_under_probability": 0.6766, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5325, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4675, "edge_over": -0.2599, "edge_under": 0.1644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.358, "model_under_probability": 0.642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.158, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.158, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:05.199Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 85.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2725, "model_under_probability": 0.7275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.2037, "edge_under": 0.1442, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1442, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3234, "model_under_probability": 0.6766, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2027, "edge_under": 0.1417, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1417, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3234, "model_under_probability": 0.6766, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2027, "edge_under": 0.1417, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1417, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4944, "model_under_probability": 0.5056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1398, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1398, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:03.099Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 73.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3152, "model_under_probability": 0.6848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.1994, "edge_under": 0.1393, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1393, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:36.874Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3234, "model_under_probability": 0.6766, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4896, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5104, "edge_over": -0.1958, "edge_under": 0.1353, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1353, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:57.291Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3982, "model_under_probability": 0.6018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.1953, "edge_under": 0.1345, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1345, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 85.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2725, "model_under_probability": 0.7275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.1905, "edge_under": 0.1307, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1307, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:41.699Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 85.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2725, "model_under_probability": 0.7275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.2153, "edge_under": 0.1197, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1197, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6743, "model_under_probability": 0.3257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": 0.1187, "edge_under": -0.1793, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1187, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "pitcher_id": 695418, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4507, "model_under_probability": 0.5493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1174, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1174, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3982, "model_under_probability": 0.6018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.1781, "edge_under": 0.1164, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1164, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3982, "model_under_probability": 0.6018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.1781, "edge_under": 0.1164, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1164, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:50.291Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2688, "model_under_probability": 0.7312, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4362, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5638, "edge_over": -0.2074, "edge_under": 0.1158, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1158, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "pitcher_id": 695418, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:00.306Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6502, "model_under_probability": 0.3498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5095, "edge_over": 0.1153, "edge_under": -0.2058, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1153, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:10.410Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 18.7, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4375, "model_under_probability": 0.5625, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5743, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4257, "edge_over": -0.1703, "edge_under": 0.112, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.112, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.916, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:06.172Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6418, "model_under_probability": 0.3582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.1113, "edge_under": -0.1723, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1113, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 73.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3152, "model_under_probability": 0.6848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.1702, "edge_under": 0.1085, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1085, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6418, "model_under_probability": 0.3582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": 0.1069, "edge_under": -0.1679, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1069, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6418, "model_under_probability": 0.3582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": 0.1069, "edge_under": -0.1679, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1069, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "pitcher_id": 695418, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.281, "model_under_probability": 0.719, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1024, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1024, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 18.7, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4375, "model_under_probability": 0.5625, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.1593, "edge_under": 0.0995, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0995, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.916, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:03.172Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6418, "model_under_probability": 0.3582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.0963, "edge_under": -0.1873, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0963, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "pitcher_id": 695418, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:52.806Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6502, "model_under_probability": 0.3498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": 0.0946, "edge_under": -0.1552, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0946, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "pitcher_id": 695418, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6502, "model_under_probability": 0.3498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": 0.0946, "edge_under": -0.1552, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0946, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "pitcher_id": 695418, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6502, "model_under_probability": 0.3498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": 0.0946, "edge_under": -0.1552, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0946, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:56.099Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 73.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3152, "model_under_probability": 0.6848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": -0.1848, "edge_under": 0.093, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.093, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:12.761Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6743, "model_under_probability": 0.3257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5576, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4424, "edge_over": 0.0825, "edge_under": -0.1438, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0825, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.264, "model_under_probability": 0.736, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0822, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0822, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.38, "model_under_probability": 0.62, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0675, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0675, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4047, "model_under_probability": 0.5953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1258, "edge_under": 0.0648, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0648, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4047, "model_under_probability": 0.5953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1258, "edge_under": 0.0648, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0648, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:11.842Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -175, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6986, "model_under_probability": 0.3014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5834, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4166, "edge_over": 0.0622, "edge_under": -0.1531, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0622, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.948, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:04.410Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 18.7, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2891, "model_under_probability": 0.7109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.1553, "edge_under": 0.0618, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0618, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.916, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5075, "model_under_probability": 0.4925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": 0.0611, "edge_under": -0.1229, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0611, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.948, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:24.492Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 109, "under_odds": -139, "expected_strikeouts": 6.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "skill_score": 64.3, "opportunity_score": 84.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3584, "model_under_probability": 0.6416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4514, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5486, "edge_over": -0.1201, "edge_under": 0.06, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.06, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:16.261Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6743, "model_under_probability": 0.3257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5638, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4362, "edge_over": 0.0589, "edge_under": -0.1505, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0589, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:05.842Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5075, "model_under_probability": 0.4925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": 0.057, "edge_under": -0.1169, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.057, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.948, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2122, "model_under_probability": 0.7878, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.056, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.056, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 6.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "skill_score": 64.3, "opportunity_score": 84.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3584, "model_under_probability": 0.6416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.1133, "edge_under": 0.0548, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0548, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:39.695Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4047, "model_under_probability": 0.5953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1408, "edge_under": 0.0498, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0498, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "pitcher_id": 669713, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 18.1, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3538, "model_under_probability": 0.6462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.1049, "edge_under": 0.0462, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0462, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5169, "model_under_probability": 0.4831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": 0.0452, "edge_under": -0.1037, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "pitcher_id": 669713, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:50.983Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 18.1, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3538, "model_under_probability": 0.6462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4308, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5692, "edge_over": -0.1028, "edge_under": 0.043, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.043, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:46.695Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -103, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4047, "model_under_probability": 0.5953, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5218, "edge_over": -0.1027, "edge_under": 0.0417, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0417, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:12.761Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 81.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3952, "model_under_probability": 0.6048, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0998, "edge_under": 0.0396, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0396, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3322, "model_under_probability": 0.6678, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0381, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0381, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:05.842Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 51.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4699, "model_under_probability": 0.5301, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.536, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.464, "edge_over": -0.0991, "edge_under": 0.0375, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0375, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:18.653Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -123, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.48, "skill_score": 45.8, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4571, "model_under_probability": 0.5429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4791, "edge_over": -0.0945, "edge_under": 0.0355, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.48, "skill_score": 45.8, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4571, "model_under_probability": 0.5429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.0884, "edge_under": 0.0283, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0283, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0263, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0263, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2233, "model_under_probability": 0.7767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0233, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0233, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:16.261Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 81.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3952, "model_under_probability": 0.6048, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4675, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5325, "edge_over": -0.117, "edge_under": 0.0215, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0215, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7811, "model_under_probability": 0.2189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0192, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0192, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:04.653Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.48, "skill_score": 45.8, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4571, "model_under_probability": 0.5429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4769, "edge_over": -0.1174, "edge_under": 0.0191, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0191, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 12.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:52.806Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.484, "model_under_probability": 0.516, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": 0.0167, "edge_under": -0.0775, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0167, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.484, "model_under_probability": 0.516, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4392, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5608, "edge_over": 0.0167, "edge_under": -0.0808, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0167, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.484, "model_under_probability": 0.516, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4392, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5608, "edge_over": 0.0167, "edge_under": -0.0808, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0167, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:00.306Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -175, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6519, "model_under_probability": 0.3481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5834, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4166, "edge_over": 0.0155, "edge_under": -0.1064, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0155, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:10.410Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -149, "under_odds": 117, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5284, "model_under_probability": 0.4716, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.565, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.435, "edge_over": -0.07, "edge_under": 0.0108, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0108, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 81.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support 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"no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:06.172Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -116, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4938, "edge_over": -0.0685, "edge_under": 0.0077, "recommended_side": "No 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"implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0047, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0047, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 190, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3399, "model_under_probability": 0.6601, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3448, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0049, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0049, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "pitcher_id": 669713, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:50.483Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 18.1, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5065, "model_under_probability": 0.4935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0853, "edge_under": -0.0065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0065, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5284, "model_under_probability": 0.4716, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.0514, "edge_under": -0.0092, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -950, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 69.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8919, "model_under_probability": 0.1081, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0129, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0129, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:39.036Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -117, "under_odds": -109, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5392, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5215, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5083, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4917, "edge_over": -0.0471, "edge_under": -0.0136, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0136, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0413, "edge_under": -0.018, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0413, "edge_under": -0.018, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:09.036Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4675, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5325, "edge_over": -0.0201, "edge_under": -0.0754, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0201, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:50.483Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 52.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.068, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:03.172Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5095, "edge_over": -0.0664, "edge_under": -0.0241, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0241, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:57:11.842Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 51.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4699, "model_under_probability": 0.5301, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5095, "edge_over": -0.065, "edge_under": -0.0255, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.0384, "edge_under": -0.027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.0384, "edge_under": -0.027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:50.983Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 52.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0318, "edge_under": -0.0288, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0288, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-21T11:56:58.058Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 52.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0318, "edge_under": -0.0288, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0288, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.192, "model_under_probability": 0.808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0302, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0302, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6619, "model_under_probability": 0.3381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0304, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0304, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1022, "model_under_probability": 0.8978, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0348, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6519, "model_under_probability": 0.3481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.697, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0451, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0451, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7961, "model_under_probability": 0.2039, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0452, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0452, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.9008, "model_under_probability": 0.0992, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0557, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0557, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -670, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8083, "model_under_probability": 0.1917, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0618, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0618, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1705, "model_under_probability": 0.8295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0795, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0795, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 172, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.286, "model_under_probability": 0.714, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3676, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0816, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0816, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.881, "model_under_probability": 0.119, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0912, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0912, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8133, "model_under_probability": 0.1867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0958, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0958, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 40.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6591, "model_under_probability": 0.3409, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.097, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.097, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0427, "model_under_probability": 0.9573, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.763, "model_under_probability": 0.237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.112, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8472, "model_under_probability": 0.1528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1311, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1311, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 146, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2688, "model_under_probability": 0.7312, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1377, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1377, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 172, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2234, "model_under_probability": 0.7766, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3676, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1442, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1442, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8119, "model_under_probability": 0.1881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1558, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1558, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0824, "model_under_probability": 0.9176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1773, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1773, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6834, "model_under_probability": 0.3166, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1916, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1916, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5416, "model_under_probability": 0.4584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1952, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1952, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -950, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7095, "model_under_probability": 0.2905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1953, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1953, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2214, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2214, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7168, "model_under_probability": 0.2832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2306, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2306, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5809, "model_under_probability": 0.4191, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2604, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2604, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 76.3, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4452, "model_under_probability": 0.5548, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2691, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2691, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1493, "model_under_probability": 0.8507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2744, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2744, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill 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"support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5681, "model_under_probability": 0.4319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4041, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4041, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -180, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": 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"recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.5004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": 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"No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": 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"canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }