{ "date": "2026-08-22", "generated_at": "2026-08-23T00:03:53.773993", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-22", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 72, "matched_count": 36, "unmatched_count": 36 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 36, "grouped_pitcher_count": 12, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 36, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "skill_score": 77.2, "opportunity_score": 79.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2595, "model_under_probability": 0.7405, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5247, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4753, "edge_over": -0.298, "edge_under": 0.2355, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2355, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "skill_score": 77.2, "opportunity_score": 79.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2595, "model_under_probability": 0.7405, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.2961, "edge_under": 0.2355, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2355, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 36.3, "opportunity_score": 63.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.536, "edge_over": -0.274, "edge_under": 0.2124, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2124, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -161, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3491, "model_under_probability": 0.6509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5823, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4177, "edge_over": -0.2678, "edge_under": 0.2084, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2084, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:17.803Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "skill_score": 77.2, "opportunity_score": 79.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2595, "model_under_probability": 0.7405, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.2754, "edge_under": 0.2056, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2056, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 36.3, "opportunity_score": 63.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.2622, "edge_under": 0.2016, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2016, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3491, "model_under_probability": 0.6509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": -0.2509, "edge_under": 0.1922, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1922, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:26.449Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 36.3, "opportunity_score": 63.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": -0.2692, "edge_under": 0.1896, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1896, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:06.530Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2263, "model_under_probability": 0.7737, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.2388, "edge_under": 0.1659, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1659, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 28.4, "opportunity_score": 63.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3569, "model_under_probability": 0.6431, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4803, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5197, "edge_over": -0.1529, "edge_under": 0.0915, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0915, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.918, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:26.449Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 31.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.156, "edge_under": 0.0867, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0867, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 28.4, "opportunity_score": 63.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3569, "model_under_probability": 0.6431, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.1431, "edge_under": 0.0817, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0817, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.918, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 31.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1366, "edge_under": 0.0756, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0756, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 62.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4263, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5737, "edge_over": 0.0717, "edge_under": -0.1285, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 31.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1203, "edge_under": 0.061, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.061, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 62.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4378, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5622, "edge_over": 0.0549, "edge_under": -0.1222, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0549, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:28.292Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 24.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4232, "model_under_probability": 0.5768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1223, "edge_under": 0.053, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.053, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -116, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 24.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4232, "model_under_probability": 0.5768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4938, "edge_over": -0.1138, "edge_under": 0.053, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.053, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 24.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4232, "model_under_probability": 0.5768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1029, "edge_under": 0.0419, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0419, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 23.7, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5705, "model_under_probability": 0.4295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.04, "edge_under": -0.101, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.04, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.63, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.137, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 23.7, "opportunity_score": 68.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5705, "model_under_probability": 0.4295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.04, "edge_under": -0.101, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.04, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.63, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.137, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:43.737Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.1, 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55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": -0.0669, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:25.752Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, 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0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.0723, "edge_under": 0.0045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:58:29.191Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, 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"timestamp": "2026-08-22T11:56:33.780Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.62, "skill_score": 38.5, "opportunity_score": 53.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", 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"opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, 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"pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", 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"source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }