{ "date": "2026-08-25", "generated_at": "2026-08-26T00:02:52.944307", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-25", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 72, "matched_count": 54, "unmatched_count": 18 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 54, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 54, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 83.5, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5709, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4291, "edge_over": -0.3613, "edge_under": 0.3021, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3021, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 83.5, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.3629, "edge_under": 0.3021, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3021, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:54.556Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 83.5, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1576, "model_under_probability": 0.8424, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.3302, "edge_under": 0.2591, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2591, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 22.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5883, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4117, "edge_over": -0.3044, "edge_under": 0.225, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.225, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 22.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.2757, "edge_under": 0.2149, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2149, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.7, "opportunity_score": 20.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5408, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4592, "edge_over": -0.2441, "edge_under": 0.1818, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1818, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.6, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:02.875Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.7, "opportunity_score": 20.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.2441, "edge_under": 0.1696, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1696, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.6, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:26.783Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 22.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.2439, "edge_under": 0.1694, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1694, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.7, "opportunity_score": 20.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.2109, "edge_under": 0.1504, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1504, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.6, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 50.3, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 38.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3069, "model_under_probability": 0.6931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.416, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.584, "edge_over": -0.1205, "edge_under": 0.0931, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0931, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 50.3, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 38.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5608, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4392, "edge_over": -0.1563, "edge_under": 0.0922, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0922, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:18.995Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 58.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6313, "model_under_probability": 0.3687, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.0858, "edge_under": -0.1551, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0858, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:15.286Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 50.3, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 38.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3069, "model_under_probability": 0.6931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.1582, "edge_under": 0.0853, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0853, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 25.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5825, "model_under_probability": 0.4175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": 0.0727, "edge_under": -0.132, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0727, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 30.4, "opportunity_score": 58.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4195, "model_under_probability": 0.5805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4831, "edge_over": -0.126, "edge_under": 0.0707, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0707, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 30.4, "opportunity_score": 58.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4195, "model_under_probability": 0.5805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.13, "edge_under": 0.0707, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0707, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:39.411Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5191, "model_under_probability": 0.4809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0646, "edge_under": -0.1345, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0646, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.929, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "pitcher_id": 605135, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -180, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5202, "model_under_probability": 0.4798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6067, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3933, "edge_over": -0.1227, "edge_under": 0.0631, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0631, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.131, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.49, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5191, "model_under_probability": 0.4809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": 0.0604, "edge_under": -0.1191, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0604, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.929, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5191, "model_under_probability": 0.4809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": 0.0561, "edge_under": -0.1159, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0561, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.929, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 107, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 58.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6313, "model_under_probability": 0.3687, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.456, "edge_over": 0.055, "edge_under": -0.1144, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.055, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -151, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 0.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5093, "model_under_probability": 0.4907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5674, "edge_over": 0.0506, "edge_under": -0.1109, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0506, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.637Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 30.4, "opportunity_score": 58.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4195, "model_under_probability": 0.5805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1154, "edge_under": 0.0456, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0456, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 58.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6313, "model_under_probability": 0.3687, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": 0.0445, "edge_under": -0.103, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0445, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:29.734Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 0.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5093, "model_under_probability": 0.4907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.0442, "edge_under": -0.1171, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0442, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 54.7, "opportunity_score": 40.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5726, "edge_over": -0.1028, "edge_under": 0.044, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.044, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 54.7, "opportunity_score": 40.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1048, "edge_under": 0.044, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.044, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:10.391Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 54.7, "opportunity_score": 40.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4858, "model_under_probability": 0.5142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1142, "edge_under": 0.038, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.038, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "pitcher_id": 605135, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -167, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5202, "model_under_probability": 0.4798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5857, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4143, "edge_over": -0.1053, "edge_under": 0.0373, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0373, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.131, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.49, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:10.509Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 25.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5825, "model_under_probability": 0.4175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.037, "edge_under": -0.1063, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.037, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -121, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 25.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5825, "model_under_probability": 0.4175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5178, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4822, "edge_over": 0.035, "edge_under": -0.0923, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.035, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "pitcher_id": 607192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 72.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4087, "model_under_probability": 0.5913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3704, "model_under_probability": 0.6296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.0644, "edge_under": -0.0068, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0068, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 20.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5451, "model_under_probability": 0.4549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.0517, "edge_under": -0.0081, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "pitcher_id": 607192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:39.411Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 72.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5456, "model_under_probability": 0.4544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.0622, "edge_under": -0.0107, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0107, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:07.250Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4577, "model_under_probability": 0.5423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0545, "edge_under": -0.0133, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0133, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 20.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 94.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5451, "model_under_probability": 0.4549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5576, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4424, "edge_over": -0.0467, "edge_under": -0.0146, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:10.391Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4728, "model_under_probability": 0.5272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.015, "edge_under": -0.0561, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.015, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 0.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -129, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4577, "model_under_probability": 0.5423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5335, "edge_over": -0.0349, "edge_under": -0.021, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.021, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:58.095Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.0372, "edge_under": -0.023, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4577, "model_under_probability": 0.5423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5452, "edge_over": -0.0231, "edge_under": -0.034, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0231, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:58:04.149Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0487, "edge_under": -0.0275, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0275, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-25T11:57:32.386Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 17.3, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.424, "model_under_probability": 0.576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.0305, "edge_under": -0.0303, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0303, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }