{ "date": "2026-08-27", "generated_at": "2026-08-27T23:44:41.241366", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-27", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 33, "matched_count": 27, "unmatched_count": 6 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 27, "grouped_pitcher_count": 9, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 27, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -121, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.173, "model_under_probability": 0.827, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4845, "edge_over": -0.3745, "edge_under": 0.3124, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3124, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.173, "model_under_probability": 0.827, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.3683, "edge_under": 0.3078, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3078, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:58:15.592Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 86.7, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.173, "model_under_probability": 0.827, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.3508, "edge_under": 0.2815, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2815, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 24.3, "opportunity_score": 75.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.393, "model_under_probability": 0.607, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5247, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4753, "edge_over": -0.1645, "edge_under": 0.102, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.102, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 24.3, "opportunity_score": 75.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.393, "model_under_probability": 0.607, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.1525, "edge_under": 0.0924, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0924, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:41.315Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 24.3, "opportunity_score": 75.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.393, "model_under_probability": 0.607, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5082, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4918, "edge_over": -0.1483, "edge_under": 0.0832, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0832, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 37.3, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4775, "model_under_probability": 0.5225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.1288, "edge_under": 0.068, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 37.3, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4775, "model_under_probability": 0.5225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4302, "edge_over": -0.1272, "edge_under": 0.0659, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0659, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 78.2, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5588, "edge_over": -0.1176, "edge_under": 0.0585, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0585, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 35.8, "opportunity_score": 78.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 7.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3428, "model_under_probability": 0.6572, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4344, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5656, "edge_over": -0.118, "edge_under": 0.0572, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 35.8, "opportunity_score": 78.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 7.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3428, "model_under_probability": 0.6572, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.1159, "edge_under": 0.0572, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:50.072Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 35.8, "opportunity_score": 78.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 7.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3428, "model_under_probability": 0.6572, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.1223, "edge_under": 0.0494, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0494, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:44.887Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.466, "model_under_probability": 0.534, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.1258, "edge_under": 0.0462, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0462, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:50.072Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 78.2, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.1154, "edge_under": 0.0425, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:13.430Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 37.3, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4775, "model_under_probability": 0.5225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.1143, "edge_under": 0.0347, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0347, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.466, "model_under_probability": 0.534, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.0954, "edge_under": 0.034, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 78.2, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": -0.0928, "edge_under": 0.032, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.032, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.466, "model_under_probability": 0.534, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.0753, "edge_under": 0.0148, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0148, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4205, "model_under_probability": 0.5795, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.0649, "edge_under": 0.0032, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0032, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 39.0, "opportunity_score": 68.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.0551, "edge_under": -0.0057, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0057, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 39.0, "opportunity_score": 68.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5725, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4275, "edge_over": -0.04, "edge_under": -0.0137, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "pitcher_id": 669713, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 44.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4358, "model_under_probability": 0.5642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4268, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5732, "edge_over": -0.0167, "edge_under": -0.0436, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0167, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:30.912Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4205, "model_under_probability": 0.5795, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4362, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5638, "edge_over": -0.0425, "edge_under": -0.0189, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0189, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "pitcher_id": 669713, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:57:47.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 44.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4358, "model_under_probability": 0.5642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0229, "edge_under": -0.0358, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0229, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:58:15.592Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 39.0, "opportunity_score": 68.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4104, "model_under_probability": 0.5896, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0258, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:58:16.961Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4205, "model_under_probability": 0.5795, 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"sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-27T11:58:13.592Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 44.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as 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"team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }