{ "date": "2026-08-28", "generated_at": "2026-08-28T23:53:09.308542", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-28", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 73, "matched_count": 37, "unmatched_count": 36 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 37, "grouped_pitcher_count": 13, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 37, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.834Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 43.4, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3014, "model_under_probability": 0.6986, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.2441, "edge_under": 0.1748, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1748, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 43.4, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3014, "model_under_probability": 0.6986, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.2269, "edge_under": 0.1659, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1659, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -139, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2527, "model_under_probability": 0.7473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5498, "edge_over": -0.2235, "edge_under": 0.1657, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1657, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 43.4, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3014, "model_under_probability": 0.6986, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2247, "edge_under": 0.1637, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1637, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:46.196Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3799, "model_under_probability": 0.6201, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.2279, "edge_under": 0.155, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.155, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.2153, "edge_under": 0.1545, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1545, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -168, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 6.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.91, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 74.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3885, "model_under_probability": 0.6115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.2384, "edge_under": 0.1485, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1485, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 6.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.91, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 74.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3885, "model_under_probability": 0.6115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5529, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4471, "edge_over": -0.1948, "edge_under": 0.1398, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1398, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.1958, "edge_under": 0.1373, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1373, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:44.082Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.91, "skill_score": 72.0, "opportunity_score": 74.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3885, "model_under_probability": 0.6115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.2033, "edge_under": 0.1237, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1237, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:54.221Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.1742, "edge_under": 0.0968, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0968, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 26.7, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5456, "model_under_probability": 0.4544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": 0.0951, "edge_under": -0.155, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0951, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:46.196Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 51.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3089, "model_under_probability": 0.6911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1673, "edge_under": 0.0911, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0911, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -151, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 51.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3089, "model_under_probability": 0.6911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5685, "edge_over": -0.1477, "edge_under": 0.0895, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0895, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -164, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 51.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5861, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4139, "edge_over": -0.1398, "edge_under": 0.08, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.08, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 26.7, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5456, "model_under_probability": 0.4544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5588, "edge_over": 0.0783, "edge_under": -0.1374, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0783, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 63.6, "opportunity_score": 67.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4794, "model_under_probability": 0.5206, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.1269, "edge_under": 0.0661, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0661, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:54:58.676Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 63.6, "opportunity_score": 67.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4794, "model_under_probability": 0.5206, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1284, "edge_under": 0.0555, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0555, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 35.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5778, "model_under_probability": 0.4222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": 0.0517, "edge_under": -0.1127, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0517, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:52.515Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 26.7, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5456, "model_under_probability": 0.4544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": 0.0456, "edge_under": -0.1201, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0456, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:38.676Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 63.6, "opportunity_score": 67.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3559, "model_under_probability": 0.6441, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4268, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5732, "edge_over": -0.0966, "edge_under": 0.0363, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0363, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -121, "under_odds": -107, "expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 35.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5778, "model_under_probability": 0.4222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5144, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4856, "edge_over": 0.0303, "edge_under": -0.0947, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0303, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.501, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.499, "edge_over": 0.0185, "edge_under": -0.0729, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0185, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 67.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4593, "model_under_probability": 0.5407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": 0.0168, "edge_under": -0.0776, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0168, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:41.671Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 67.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4593, "model_under_probability": 0.5407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": 0.0149, "edge_under": -0.0819, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0149, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 123, "under_odds": -159, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 67.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4593, "model_under_probability": 0.5407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4221, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5779, "edge_over": 0.0109, "edge_under": -0.0732, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0109, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.680Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0741, "edge_under": 0.0012, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0012, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -188, "under_odds": 146, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5956, "model_under_probability": 0.4044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6528, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6163, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3837, "edge_over": -0.0572, "edge_under": -0.0021, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0021, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4183, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5817, "edge_over": -0.0515, "edge_under": -0.0064, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0064, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -139, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5345, "model_under_probability": 0.4655, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5498, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4502, "edge_over": -0.0471, "edge_under": -0.0107, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0107, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.945, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 23.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5617, "model_under_probability": 0.4383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5737, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4263, "edge_over": -0.0446, "edge_under": -0.0122, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0122, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.680Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 35.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5778, "model_under_probability": 0.4222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.014, "edge_under": -0.0656, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.014, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:39.138Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.0146, "edge_under": -0.0468, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:48.423Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 23.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4089, "model_under_probability": 0.5911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0562, "edge_under": -0.0167, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0167, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:21.399Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 23.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4089, "model_under_probability": 0.5911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.0416, "edge_under": -0.0183, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0183, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:44.082Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5345, "model_under_probability": 0.4655, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.0488, "edge_under": -0.0223, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0223, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.945, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 0.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-28T11:55:41.671Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": -0.0468, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kohl Drake", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kohl Drake", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kohl Drake", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }