{
  "date": "2026-09-06",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-06T23:49:06.505752",
  "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges",
  "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts",
  "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay",
  "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder",
  "projection_date": "2026-09-06",
  "sportsbook_input_summary": {
    "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input",
    "source_count": 1,
    "row_count": 63,
    "matched_count": 33,
    "unmatched_count": 30
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.",
    "distribution": {
      "name": "negative_binomial_style",
      "alpha": 0.0619,
      "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).",
      "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0."
    },
    "recommendation_thresholds": {
      "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015,
      "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03,
      "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "raw_row_count": 33,
    "grouped_pitcher_count": 13,
    "sportsbook_count": 3
  },
  "edge_count": 33,
  "edges": [
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison",
      "pitcher_id": 690986,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:57:26.198Z",
      "line": 6.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -118,
      "under_odds": -110,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.94,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94,
      "skill_score": 40.3,
      "opportunity_score": 32.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1,
      "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Balanced Support",
      "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.",
      "suppression_score": 72.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.2474,
      "model_under_probability": 0.7526,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5082,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4918,
      "edge_over": -0.2939,
      "edge_under": 0.2288,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.2288,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.18,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 84.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "pitcher_id": 668909,
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 7.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -119,
      "under_odds": -110,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.78,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78,
      "skill_score": 84.5,
      "opportunity_score": 41.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 31.6,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL",
      "support_label": "Strong Skill",
      "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 59.6,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.2482,
      "model_under_probability": 0.7518,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5434,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5092,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4908,
      "edge_over": -0.2952,
      "edge_under": 0.228,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.228,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": -0.15,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 75.0,
      "wind_speed_mph": 11.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "pitcher_id": 668909,
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 7.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -113,
      "under_odds": -113,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.78,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78,
      "skill_score": 84.5,
      "opportunity_score": 41.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 31.6,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL",
      "support_label": "Strong Skill",
      "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 59.6,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.2482,
      "model_under_probability": 0.7518,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5,
      "edge_over": -0.2823,
      "edge_under": 0.2213,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.2213,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": -0.15,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 75.0,
      "wind_speed_mph": 11.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison",
      "pitcher_id": 690986,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 6.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -114,
      "under_odds": -114,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.94,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94,
      "skill_score": 40.3,
      "opportunity_score": 32.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1,
      "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Balanced Support",
      "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.",
      "suppression_score": 72.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.2474,
      "model_under_probability": 0.7526,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5,
      "edge_over": -0.2853,
      "edge_under": 0.2199,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.2199,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.18,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 84.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison",
      "pitcher_id": 690986,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 6.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -111,
      "under_odds": -115,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.94,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94,
      "skill_score": 40.3,
      "opportunity_score": 32.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1,
      "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Balanced Support",
      "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.",
      "suppression_score": 72.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.2474,
      "model_under_probability": 0.7526,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041,
      "edge_over": -0.2787,
      "edge_under": 0.2177,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.2177,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.18,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 84.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "pitcher_id": 693433,
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 6.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -136,
      "under_odds": 106,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.6,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6,
      "skill_score": 28.9,
      "opportunity_score": 42.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 50.2,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.3373,
      "model_under_probability": 0.6627,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572,
      "edge_over": -0.239,
      "edge_under": 0.1773,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.1773,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.48,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 62.1,
      "wind_speed_mph": 4.7,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "pitcher_id": 693433,
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 6.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -123,
      "under_odds": -106,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.6,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6,
      "skill_score": 28.9,
      "opportunity_score": 42.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 50.2,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.3373,
      "model_under_probability": 0.6627,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5174,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4826,
      "edge_over": -0.2143,
      "edge_under": 0.1481,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.1481,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.48,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 62.1,
      "wind_speed_mph": 4.7,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "pitcher_id": 693433,
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:57:59.610Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -210,
      "under_odds": 155,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.6,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6,
      "skill_score": 28.9,
      "opportunity_score": 42.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 50.2,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4728,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5272,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.3922,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6333,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3667,
      "edge_over": -0.2046,
      "edge_under": 0.135,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.135,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.48,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 62.1,
      "wind_speed_mph": 4.7,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "pitcher_id": 680694,
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:58:27.091Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -115,
      "under_odds": -115,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.91,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91,
      "skill_score": 4.0,
      "opportunity_score": 50.1,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 41.4,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.6619,
      "model_under_probability": 0.3381,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5,
      "edge_over": 0.127,
      "edge_under": -0.1968,
      "recommended_side": "Over",
      "recommended_edge": 0.127,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.14,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 81.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 6.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "pitcher_id": 680694,
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -128,
      "under_odds": 100,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.91,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91,
      "skill_score": 4.0,
      "opportunity_score": 50.1,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 41.4,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
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      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614,
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      "edge_over": 0.1005,
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      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.14,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9,
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      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 81.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 6.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "pitcher_id": 680694,
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -131,
      "under_odds": 102,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.91,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91,
      "skill_score": 4.0,
      "opportunity_score": 50.1,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 41.4,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.6619,
      "model_under_probability": 0.3381,
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      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5671,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661,
      "edge_over": 0.0948,
      "edge_under": -0.1569,
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      "recommended_edge": 0.0948,
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      "no_play_reason": null,
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      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024,
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      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 81.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 6.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "pitcher_id": 694973,
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:58:14.922Z",
      "line": 6.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -155,
      "under_odds": 115,
      "expected_strikeouts": 6.41,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41,
      "skill_score": 29.0,
      "opportunity_score": 33.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 59.1,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 63.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4478,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5522,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335,
      "edge_over": -0.16,
      "edge_under": 0.0871,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0871,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.69,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 86.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.16,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 74.7,
      "wind_speed_mph": 7.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "pitcher_id": 669022,
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 126,
      "under_odds": -162,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.9,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.25,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9,
      "skill_score": 43.6,
      "opportunity_score": 46.2,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1,
      "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Balanced Support",
      "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.",
      "suppression_score": 47.9,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.5155,
      "model_under_probability": 0.4845,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829,
      "edge_over": 0.073,
      "edge_under": -0.1338,
      "recommended_side": "Over",
      "recommended_edge": 0.073,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": -0.35,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 97.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "pitcher_id": 694973,
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 7.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 121,
      "under_odds": -154,
      "expected_strikeouts": 6.41,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41,
      "skill_score": 29.0,
      "opportunity_score": 33.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 59.1,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 63.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.3259,
      "model_under_probability": 0.6741,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4274,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5726,
      "edge_over": -0.1266,
      "edge_under": 0.0678,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0678,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.69,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 86.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.16,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 74.7,
      "wind_speed_mph": 7.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "pitcher_id": 694973,
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 7.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 120,
      "under_odds": -154,
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      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41,
      "skill_score": 29.0,
      "opportunity_score": 33.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 59.1,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 63.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.3259,
      "model_under_probability": 0.6741,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715,
      "edge_over": -0.1286,
      "edge_under": 0.0678,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0678,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.69,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 86.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.16,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 74.7,
      "wind_speed_mph": 7.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "pitcher_id": 605400,
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:58:13.893Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -140,
      "under_odds": 105,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.42,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42,
      "skill_score": 56.0,
      "opportunity_score": 57.5,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 38.0,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4464,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5536,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554,
      "edge_over": -0.1369,
      "edge_under": 0.0658,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0658,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.1,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 79.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 4.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "pitcher_id": 605400,
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -132,
      "under_odds": 104,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.42,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42,
      "skill_score": 56.0,
      "opportunity_score": 57.5,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 38.0,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4464,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5536,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628,
      "edge_over": -0.1226,
      "edge_under": 0.0634,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0634,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.1,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 79.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 4.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "pitcher_id": 641927,
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 3.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -122,
      "under_odds": null,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.35,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35,
      "skill_score": 9.8,
      "opportunity_score": 47.8,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 45.3,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 52.9,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.6035,
      "model_under_probability": 0.3965,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": null,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": null,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": null,
      "edge_over": 0.054,
      "edge_under": null,
      "recommended_side": "Over",
      "recommended_edge": 0.054,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.37,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.2,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 69.3,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.8,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "pitcher_id": 669022,
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 108,
      "under_odds": -138,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.9,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.25,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9,
      "skill_score": 43.6,
      "opportunity_score": 46.2,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1,
      "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Balanced Support",
      "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.",
      "suppression_score": 47.9,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.5155,
      "model_under_probability": 0.4845,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467,
      "edge_over": 0.0347,
      "edge_under": -0.0953,
      "recommended_side": "Over",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0347,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": -0.35,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 97.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "pitcher_id": 605400,
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -117,
      "under_odds": -109,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.42,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42,
      "skill_score": 56.0,
      "opportunity_score": 57.5,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 38.0,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4464,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5536,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5392,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5215,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5083,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4917,
      "edge_over": -0.0928,
      "edge_under": 0.0321,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0321,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.1,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 79.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 4.0,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "pitcher_id": 695549,
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 3.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 116,
      "under_odds": -144,
      "expected_strikeouts": 3.7,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7,
      "skill_score": 0.6,
      "opportunity_score": 29.1,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1,
      "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Weak Support",
      "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.",
      "suppression_score": 73.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4908,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5092,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4396,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5604,
      "edge_over": 0.0278,
      "edge_under": -0.081,
      "recommended_side": "Over",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0278,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.17,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.6,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 75.0,
      "wind_speed_mph": 11.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "pitcher_id": 641927,
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 3.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -140,
      "under_odds": 109,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.35,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35,
      "skill_score": 9.8,
      "opportunity_score": 47.8,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 45.3,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT",
      "support_label": "Strong Opponent",
      "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.",
      "suppression_score": 52.9,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.6035,
      "model_under_probability": 0.3965,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4785,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5494,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4506,
      "edge_over": 0.0202,
      "edge_under": -0.082,
      "recommended_side": "Over",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0202,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.37,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.2,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 69.3,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.8,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "pitcher_id": 685299,
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 3.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -158,
      "under_odds": 122,
      "expected_strikeouts": 3.94,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94,
      "skill_score": 2.8,
      "opportunity_score": 44.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 28.4,
      "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Weak Support",
      "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.",
      "suppression_score": 53.5,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.5345,
      "model_under_probability": 0.4655,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5762,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4238,
      "edge_over": -0.0779,
      "edge_under": 0.015,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.015,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": -0.06,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.96,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 85.5,
      "wind_speed_mph": 5.2,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "pitcher_id": 685299,
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 3.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -156,
      "under_odds": 122,
      "expected_strikeouts": 3.94,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94,
      "skill_score": 2.8,
      "opportunity_score": 44.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 28.4,
      "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Weak Support",
      "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.",
      "suppression_score": 53.5,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.5345,
      "model_under_probability": 0.4655,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425,
      "edge_over": -0.0749,
      "edge_under": 0.015,
      "recommended_side": "Under",
      "recommended_edge": 0.015,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "no_play_reason": null,
      "adjustment_delta": -0.06,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.96,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 85.5,
      "wind_speed_mph": 5.2,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Michael King",
      "pitcher_id": 650633,
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -117,
      "under_odds": -112,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.51,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51,
      "skill_score": 30.9,
      "opportunity_score": 65.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 45.8,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 29.9,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4597,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5403,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5392,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5051,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4949,
      "edge_over": -0.0795,
      "edge_under": 0.012,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": 0.012,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.41,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.3,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 77.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.3,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "pitcher_id": 593958,
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 106,
      "under_odds": -136,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.24,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.09,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24,
      "skill_score": 19.7,
      "opportunity_score": 68.0,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY",
      "support_label": "Strong Opportunity",
      "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.",
      "suppression_score": 15.0,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.412,
      "model_under_probability": 0.588,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428,
      "edge_over": -0.0734,
      "edge_under": 0.0117,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": 0.0117,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.15,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.8,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.64,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 87.8,
      "wind_speed_mph": 1.4,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Michael King",
      "pitcher_id": 650633,
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -106,
      "under_odds": -120,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.51,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51,
      "skill_score": 30.9,
      "opportunity_score": 65.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 45.8,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 29.9,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4597,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5403,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146,
      "edge_over": -0.0549,
      "edge_under": -0.0052,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0052,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.41,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.3,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 77.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.3,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "pitcher_id": 695549,
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 3.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 100,
      "under_odds": -128,
      "expected_strikeouts": 3.7,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7,
      "skill_score": 0.6,
      "opportunity_score": 29.1,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1,
      "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Weak Support",
      "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.",
      "suppression_score": 73.3,
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.",
      "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.",
      "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED",
      "trust_label": "Suppressed",
      "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4908,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5092,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289,
      "edge_over": -0.0092,
      "edge_under": -0.0522,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0092,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.17,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.6,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "temperature_f": 75.0,
      "wind_speed_mph": 11.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer",
      "pitcher_id": 663903,
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:57:26.198Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": -105,
      "under_odds": -125,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.54,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.33,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54,
      "skill_score": 16.6,
      "opportunity_score": 62.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY",
      "support_label": "Strong Opportunity",
      "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.",
      "suppression_score": 35.5,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4627,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5373,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203,
      "edge_over": -0.0495,
      "edge_under": -0.0183,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0183,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.21,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 84.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "pitcher_id": 593958,
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 121,
      "under_odds": -154,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.24,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.09,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24,
      "skill_score": 19.7,
      "opportunity_score": 68.0,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY",
      "support_label": "Strong Opportunity",
      "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.",
      "suppression_score": 15.0,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.412,
      "model_under_probability": 0.588,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4274,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5726,
      "edge_over": -0.0405,
      "edge_under": -0.0183,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0183,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.15,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.8,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.64,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 87.8,
      "wind_speed_mph": 1.4,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer",
      "pitcher_id": 663903,
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:52.766Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 106,
      "under_odds": -136,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.54,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.33,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54,
      "skill_score": 16.6,
      "opportunity_score": 62.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY",
      "support_label": "Strong Opportunity",
      "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.",
      "suppression_score": 35.5,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4627,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5373,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428,
      "edge_over": -0.0227,
      "edge_under": -0.039,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0227,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.21,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 84.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer",
      "pitcher_id": 663903,
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:56:32.725Z",
      "line": 4.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 104,
      "under_odds": -130,
      "expected_strikeouts": 4.54,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.33,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54,
      "skill_score": 16.6,
      "opportunity_score": 62.6,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3,
      "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY",
      "support_label": "Strong Opportunity",
      "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.",
      "suppression_score": 35.5,
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.",
      "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL",
      "trust_label": "Neutral",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4627,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5373,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4645,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5355,
      "edge_over": -0.0275,
      "edge_under": -0.0279,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0275,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.21,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 84.2,
      "wind_speed_mph": 9.5,
      "wind_direction": "in",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Michael King",
      "pitcher_id": 650633,
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "source_provider": "sportsgameodds",
      "timestamp": "2026-09-06T11:58:33.000Z",
      "line": 5.5,
      "line_type": "half",
      "over_odds": 100,
      "under_odds": -135,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.51,
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1,
      "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51,
      "skill_score": 30.9,
      "opportunity_score": 65.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 45.8,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 29.9,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.",
      "model_over_probability": 0.4597,
      "model_under_probability": 0.5403,
      "model_push_probability": 0.0,
      "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5,
      "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745,
      "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653,
      "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347,
      "edge_over": -0.0403,
      "edge_under": -0.0342,
      "recommended_side": "No Play",
      "recommended_edge": -0.0342,
      "play_tier": "No Play",
      "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.",
      "adjustment_delta": 0.41,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081,
      "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.3,
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0,
      "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19,
      "environment_summary": "neutral",
      "temperature_f": 77.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.3,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style",
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json"
    }
  ],
  "unmatched_inputs": [
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump",
      "team_abbr": "OAK",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump",
      "team_abbr": "OAK",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump",
      "team_abbr": "OAK",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy",
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 2.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy",
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 6.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 6.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 6.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "ARI",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "ARI",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 2.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 3.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "line": 5.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    },
    {
      "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "line": 4.5,
      "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json",
      "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found."
    }
  ]
}