{ "date": "2026-06-18", "generated_at": "2026-06-17T23:31:41.990712", "projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "training_sample_size": 10282, "minimum_training_starts": 75, "feature_names": [ "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts", "pitcher_k_per_bf_season", "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1", "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2", "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5", "pitcher_outs_per_start_season", "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1", "pitcher_bf_per_start_season", "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1", "pitcher_start_count_season", "pitcher_start_count_3yr", "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days", "opponent_k_rate_season", "opponent_k_rate_prev_1", "is_home", "days_rest_capped" ], "projected_start_count": 17, "skipped_start_count": 1, "skip_reasons": { "No probable starter was listed.": 1 }, "predictions": [ { "game_pk": 824748, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.68, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.16902, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.200785, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.258985, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.283373, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.531553, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.826614, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.614921, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.018021, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 23.152032, "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 64.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824748, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 702056, "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.51, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.273565, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.254703, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.230486, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219087, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.241033, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.526611, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.217437, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.462245, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.645026, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 4.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823772, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 3.85, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.196601, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.209559, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219087, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219087, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 13.827421, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 14.74015, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.582669, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.167585, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.938533, "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 1.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823772, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.36, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.267591, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.231158, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.224962, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219087, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.626357, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.575473, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.166276, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.444292, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.610902, "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 10.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 822889, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 683004, "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.24, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.292071, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.25227, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.227215, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.198162, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.724685, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.358149, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.662223, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.042912, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.189368, "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 39.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 822889, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.66, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.273427, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.277663, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.271784, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.25856, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.620984, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.483238, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.345667, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.91979, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.234633, "pitcher_start_count_season": 6.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 59.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823125, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.09, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.256023, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.210155, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.262047, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.215502, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 18.053247, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 18.196849, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 17.895667, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 24.007006, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 23.759633, "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 55.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823125, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.65, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.224262, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.2298, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.242582, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.217375, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.883878, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.251915, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.971383, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.685327, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.692325, "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 48.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823448, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.3, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.233241, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.233855, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.23441, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.236096, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.092384, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.155594, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.25284, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 23.13129, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 23.088346, "pitcher_start_count_season": 5.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 55.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823448, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.46, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.286694, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.252286, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.256319, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.242876, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 12.441516, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 14.083031, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 14.083031, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 20.153879, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 20.153879, "pitcher_start_count_season": 0.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 44.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823533, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 5.25, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.293939, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.259203, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.221086, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.218373, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.305105, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.280618, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.045927, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.773531, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.410296, "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 28.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 823533, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 3.67, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.18909, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.192873, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.20757, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.239761, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 14.346104, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 14.723334, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 14.619584, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.667848, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.418292, "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 28.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824911, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 3.48, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.134954, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.166127, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.200725, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.190908, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.775131, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.775516, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.691334, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.632194, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.619267, "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 39.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824911, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.26, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.264214, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.241039, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.215436, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.206491, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 13.813921, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.095667, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 14.869584, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.784633, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.730792, "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 28.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824098, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.38, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.216736, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.208356, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.208021, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219087, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.519195, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.573833, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.78902, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.676692, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.805451, "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 27.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824098, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "is_home": false, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 3.45, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.165111, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.169087, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.194064, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.218978, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.641352, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.691482, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.662223, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.660433, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.24065, "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 39.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 0.0, "days_rest_capped": 10.0 } }, { "game_pk": 824989, "game_date": "2026-06-18", "season": 2026, "game_type": "R", "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "is_home": true, "starter_confidence": "probable", "training_start_count": 10282, "predicted_strikeouts": 4.66, "features": { "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.219087, "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.219087, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219087, "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219087, "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.582669, "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.582669, "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.582669, "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.938533, "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.938533, "pitcher_start_count_season": 0.0, "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 0.0, "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.223973, "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.223973, "is_home": 1.0, "days_rest_capped": 5.0 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "game_pk": 824989, "pitcher_name": "Los Angeles Angels", "reason": "No probable starter was listed." } ] }