{
  "date": "2026-09-10",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-10T08:02:55.638046",
  "projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts",
  "model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f",
  "training_sample_size": 10312,
  "minimum_training_starts": 75,
  "feature_names": [
    "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts",
    "pitcher_k_per_bf_season",
    "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1",
    "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2",
    "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5",
    "pitcher_outs_per_start_season",
    "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1",
    "pitcher_bf_per_start_season",
    "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1",
    "pitcher_start_count_season",
    "pitcher_start_count_3yr",
    "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days",
    "opponent_k_rate_season",
    "opponent_k_rate_prev_1",
    "is_home",
    "days_rest_capped"
  ],
  "projected_start_count": 10,
  "skipped_start_count": 0,
  "skip_reasons": {},
  "predictions": [
    {
      "game_pk": 824872,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 527048,
      "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "team_id": 144,
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent_team_id": 139,
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "is_home": true,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 3.5,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.134962,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.166145,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.200755,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.190927,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.775102,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.775464,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.691263,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.632224,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.619308,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 39.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 1.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 824872,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 607259,
      "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "team_id": 139,
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent_team_id": 144,
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "is_home": false,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 3.48,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.157574,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.173889,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.186003,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.201117,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.416195,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.441208,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.411813,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.877521,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.816282,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 46.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 0.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 823413,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 554430,
      "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "team_id": 143,
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent_team_id": 117,
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "is_home": true,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 6.79,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.330932,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.298431,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.310033,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.27136,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 17.194489,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 17.788978,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 17.788978,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 23.658416,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 23.658416,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 0.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 56.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 1.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 823413,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 664299,
      "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "team_id": 117,
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent_team_id": 143,
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "is_home": false,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 3.07,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.187124,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.194445,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.217831,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.202378,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 13.264159,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 13.2589,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 14.823625,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 19.428273,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 20.910342,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 2.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 17.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 0.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 823088,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 669302,
      "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "team_id": 136,
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent_team_id": 140,
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "is_home": true,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 6.52,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.280748,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.283895,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.300546,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.263043,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 16.771802,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.341982,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.680721,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 22.110086,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.55389,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 5.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 63.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 1.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 823088,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 594798,
      "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "team_id": 140,
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent_team_id": 136,
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "is_home": false,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 5.22,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.319257,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.282216,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.266025,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.237017,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.578325,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 16.147088,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 16.845631,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.306436,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.209654,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 37.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 0.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 823499,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 608331,
      "pitcher_name": "Max Fried",
      "team_id": 147,
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_team_id": 115,
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "is_home": true,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 5.53,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.208925,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.212722,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.233306,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.229576,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 19.720627,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 18.775004,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 17.662506,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 24.946606,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 24.294908,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 4.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 65.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 1.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 823499,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 663372,
      "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner",
      "team_id": 115,
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent_team_id": 147,
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "is_home": false,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 3.44,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.173509,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.189751,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.203067,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.203848,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 14.618025,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 14.582966,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.426578,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.199371,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 22.149135,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 3.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 39.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 0.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 824550,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 696146,
      "pitcher_name": "Hagen Smith",
      "team_id": 145,
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent_team_id": 134,
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "is_home": true,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 4.67,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.219161,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.219161,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219161,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.219161,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.582525,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.582525,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.582525,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.938615,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.938615,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 0.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 0.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 1.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 5.0
      }
    },
    {
      "game_pk": 824550,
      "game_date": "2026-09-10",
      "season": 2026,
      "game_type": "R",
      "pitcher_id": 683003,
      "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones",
      "team_id": 134,
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent_team_id": 145,
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "is_home": false,
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "training_start_count": 10312,
      "predicted_strikeouts": 4.45,
      "features": {
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_last_5_starts": 0.27772,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_season": 0.237852,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_1": 0.219161,
        "pitcher_k_per_bf_prev_2": 0.249762,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_last_5": 15.368609,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_season": 15.5178,
        "pitcher_outs_per_start_prev_1": 15.582525,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_season": 21.723214,
        "pitcher_bf_per_start_prev_1": 21.938615,
        "pitcher_start_count_season": 1.0,
        "pitcher_start_count_3yr": 23.0,
        "opponent_k_rate_last_14_days": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_season": 0.224044,
        "opponent_k_rate_prev_1": 0.224044,
        "is_home": 0.0,
        "days_rest_capped": 10.0
      }
    }
  ],
  "skipped_starts": []
}