{ "date": "2025-08-15", "generated_at": "2026-04-05T19:27:07.761561", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0639, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776739, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.76, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 19.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 7.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "prob_4_plus": 0.9113, "prob_5_plus": 0.8322, "prob_6_plus": 0.7292, "prob_7_plus": 0.6117, "prob_8_plus": 0.4912, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 392.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 97.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 204.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.7, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 79.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1974 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776735, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "skill_score": 59.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.57, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "prob_4_plus": 0.8445, "prob_5_plus": 0.73, "prob_6_plus": 0.5975, "prob_7_plus": 0.4633, "prob_8_plus": 0.3411, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 87.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 194.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 169.8, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2062 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776739, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 35.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 78.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.8438, "prob_5_plus": 0.729, "prob_6_plus": 0.5963, "prob_7_plus": 0.462, "prob_8_plus": 0.3398, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 356.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "matchup_score": 87.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 86.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.8, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2295 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776733, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 71.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 16.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.28, "adjustment_delta": -0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.948, "prob_4_plus": 0.826, "prob_5_plus": 0.7036, "prob_6_plus": 0.5659, "prob_7_plus": 0.4302, "prob_8_plus": 0.3099, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jordan Westburg", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 74.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 61.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2217 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776734, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 39.5, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.8229, "prob_5_plus": 0.6992, "prob_6_plus": 0.5607, "prob_7_plus": 0.4248, "prob_8_plus": 0.305, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 364.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "matchup_score": 88.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 83.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "matchup_score": 75.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2497 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776732, "pitcher_id": 450203, "pitcher_name": "Charlie Morton", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 41.8, "opportunity_score": 57.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.7875, "prob_5_plus": 0.6509, "prob_6_plus": 0.5051, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2548, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "matchup_score": 65.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2369 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776735, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 30.4, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "prob_4_plus": 0.7827, "prob_5_plus": 0.6446, "prob_6_plus": 0.4981, "prob_7_plus": 0.3622, "prob_8_plus": 0.2488, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 78.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2178 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776736, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.772, "prob_5_plus": 0.6304, "prob_6_plus": 0.4825, "prob_7_plus": 0.347, "prob_8_plus": 0.2356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 80.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 80.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2222 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776738, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 46.5, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "prob_4_plus": 0.7447, "prob_5_plus": 0.5953, "prob_6_plus": 0.4446, "prob_7_plus": 0.3113, "prob_8_plus": 0.2054, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 97.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 97.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.225 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776741, "pitcher_id": 608337, "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "prob_4_plus": 0.7402, "prob_5_plus": 0.5897, "prob_6_plus": 0.4387, "prob_7_plus": 0.3058, "prob_8_plus": 0.2009, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 348.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.3, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 111.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "matchup_score": 49.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2242 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776730, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "skill_score": 12.3, "opportunity_score": 48.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.7357, "prob_5_plus": 0.5841, "prob_6_plus": 0.4327, "prob_7_plus": 0.3004, "prob_8_plus": 0.1964, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.124, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 89.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "matchup_score": 75.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2623 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776731, "pitcher_id": 661563, "pitcher_name": "Luis Gil", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 35.2, "opportunity_score": 35.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.7346, "prob_5_plus": 0.5827, "prob_6_plus": 0.4312, "prob_7_plus": 0.299, "prob_8_plus": 0.1953, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 63.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2147 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776736, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 20.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.7047, "prob_5_plus": 0.5461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3936, "prob_7_plus": 0.2651, "prob_8_plus": 0.168, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2636 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776741, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.6919, "prob_5_plus": 0.5309, "prob_6_plus": 0.3783, "prob_7_plus": 0.2518, "prob_8_plus": 0.1575, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2396 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776737, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "skill_score": 15.1, "opportunity_score": 40.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.6679, "prob_5_plus": 0.5028, "prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "prob_7_plus": 0.2281, "prob_8_plus": 0.1393, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.02, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2443 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776740, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "prob_4_plus": 0.6637, "prob_5_plus": 0.498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3461, "prob_7_plus": 0.2242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1363, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 152.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.062, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 131.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2345 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776729, "pitcher_id": 671212, "pitcher_name": "Joe Boyle", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 36.3, "opportunity_score": 21.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.6452, "prob_5_plus": 0.477, "prob_6_plus": 0.3262, "prob_7_plus": 0.2076, "prob_8_plus": 0.1239, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 99.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2419 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776728, "pitcher_id": 650644, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Civale", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 29.5, "opportunity_score": 39.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.6289, "prob_5_plus": 0.459, "prob_6_plus": 0.3093, "prob_7_plus": 0.1938, "prob_8_plus": 0.1138, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 78.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2115 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776729, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.42, "adjustment_delta": -0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.938, "prob_4_plus": 0.6137, "prob_5_plus": 0.4423, "prob_6_plus": 0.294, "prob_7_plus": 0.1816, "prob_8_plus": 0.105, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.6, "expected_contact_quality": 102.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 29.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 105.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2396 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776727, "pitcher_id": 477132, "pitcher_name": "Clayton Kershaw", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 42.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "prob_4_plus": 0.5817, "prob_5_plus": 0.4084, "prob_6_plus": 0.2637, "prob_7_plus": 0.1579, "prob_8_plus": 0.0884, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1924 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776731, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.5784, "prob_5_plus": 0.4049, "prob_6_plus": 0.2607, "prob_7_plus": 0.1556, "prob_8_plus": 0.0869, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Paul Goldschmidt", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 99.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 40.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Anthony Volpe", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776730, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.44, "skill_score": 0.9, "opportunity_score": 22.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "prob_4_plus": 0.4406, "prob_5_plus": 0.2725, "prob_6_plus": 0.1534, "prob_7_plus": 0.0796, "prob_8_plus": 0.0384, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.124, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Arenado", "matchup_score": 32.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.8, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "matchup_score": 31.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.6, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 29.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.4, "expected_contact_quality": 108.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2023 } }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "game_pk": 776738, "pitcher_id": 694462, "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.37, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.37, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.948, "prob_4_plus": 0.4269, "prob_5_plus": 0.2604, "prob_6_plus": 0.1445, "prob_7_plus": 0.0738, "prob_8_plus": 0.0351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 13.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "matchup_score": 25.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 36.3, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 16.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 65.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "matchup_score": 15.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 51.5, "expected_contact_quality": 96.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1953 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701487, "pitcher_name": "Pierson Ohl", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 593974, "pitcher_name": "Wandy Peralta", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }