{
  "date": "2026-03-25",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-05T19:27:08.977307",
  "projection_type": "strikeout_props",
  "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay",
  "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f",
  "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic",
  "assumptions": {
    "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts",
    "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f",
    "matchup_projection_type": "matchups",
    "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic",
    "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.",
    "distribution": {
      "name": "negative_binomial_style",
      "alpha": 0.0619,
      "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2",
      "thresholds": [
        4,
        5,
        6,
        7,
        8
      ]
    },
    "adjustment_bounds": {
      "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35,
      "score_multiplier_range": [
        0.94,
        1.06
      ],
      "final_multiplier_range": [
        0.85,
        1.15
      ]
    }
  },
  "projected_start_count": 2,
  "skipped_start_count": 0,
  "predictions": [
    {
      "date": "2026-03-25",
      "game_pk": 823244,
      "pitcher_id": 657277,
      "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb",
      "team_id": 137,
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent_team_id": 147,
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "lineup_source": "projected",
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "temperature_f": 52.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.5,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0,
      "expected_strikeouts": 6.09,
      "skill_score": 41.3,
      "opportunity_score": 66.0,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3,
      "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Dual Support",
      "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.",
      "suppression_score": 28.1,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT",
      "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment",
      "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway",
      "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.",
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58,
      "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.51,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091,
      "prob_4_plus": 0.8119,
      "prob_5_plus": 0.6834,
      "prob_6_plus": 0.5416,
      "prob_7_plus": 0.4047,
      "prob_8_plus": 0.286,
      "context": {
        "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6,
        "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.89,
        "lineup_source": "projected",
        "lineup_confidence": "projected",
        "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
        "pitch_mix_sample_size": 315.0,
        "temperature_f": 52.9,
        "wind_speed_mph": 8.5,
        "wind_direction": "cross",
        "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
        "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0,
        "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.914,
        "projected_batting_order_top_5": [
          {
            "spot": 1,
            "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero",
            "weight": 1.08
          },
          {
            "spot": 2,
            "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge",
            "weight": 1.05
          },
          {
            "spot": 3,
            "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
            "weight": 1.03
          },
          {
            "spot": 4,
            "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
            "weight": 1.02
          },
          {
            "spot": 5,
            "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
            "weight": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "top_hitter_matchups": [
          {
            "hitter_name": "Paul Goldschmidt",
            "matchup_score": 91.4,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.6,
            "expected_contact_quality": 79.6
          },
          {
            "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
            "matchup_score": 91.0,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.0,
            "expected_contact_quality": 70.3
          },
          {
            "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge",
            "matchup_score": 88.2,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.4,
            "expected_contact_quality": 60.0
          }
        ],
        "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-25",
      "game_pk": 823244,
      "pitcher_id": 608331,
      "pitcher_name": "Max Fried",
      "team_id": 147,
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent_team_id": 137,
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "starter_confidence": "probable",
      "lineup_source": "projected",
      "lineup_confidence": "projected",
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "temperature_f": 52.9,
      "wind_speed_mph": 8.5,
      "wind_direction": "cross",
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
      "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0,
      "expected_strikeouts": 5.58,
      "skill_score": 52.7,
      "opportunity_score": 84.4,
      "opponent_weakness_score": 45.3,
      "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT",
      "support_label": "Triple Support",
      "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.",
      "suppression_score": 9.1,
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.",
      "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY",
      "interaction_label": "Premium Runway",
      "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.",
      "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY",
      "trust_label": "Premium Runway",
      "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.",
      "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.23,
      "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58,
      "adjustment_delta": 0.35,
      "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068,
      "prob_4_plus": 0.7641,
      "prob_5_plus": 0.6195,
      "prob_6_plus": 0.4699,
      "prob_7_plus": 0.3345,
      "prob_8_plus": 0.2245,
      "context": {
        "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.4,
        "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.16,
        "lineup_source": "projected",
        "lineup_confidence": "projected",
        "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
        "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0,
        "temperature_f": 52.9,
        "wind_speed_mph": 8.5,
        "wind_direction": "cross",
        "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly",
        "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0,
        "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.914,
        "projected_batting_order_top_5": [
          {
            "spot": 1,
            "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez",
            "weight": 1.08
          },
          {
            "spot": 2,
            "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
            "weight": 1.05
          },
          {
            "spot": 3,
            "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman",
            "weight": 1.03
          },
          {
            "spot": 4,
            "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
            "weight": 1.02
          },
          {
            "spot": 5,
            "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos",
            "weight": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "top_hitter_matchups": [
          {
            "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt",
            "matchup_score": 92.6,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 185.5,
            "expected_contact_quality": 75.7
          },
          {
            "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman",
            "matchup_score": 88.1,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.1,
            "expected_contact_quality": 88.2
          },
          {
            "hitter_name": "Willy Adames",
            "matchup_score": 77.3,
            "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7,
            "expected_contact_quality": 79.7
          }
        ],
        "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357
      }
    }
  ],
  "skipped_starts": []
}