{ "date": "2026-03-28", "generated_at": "2026-03-28T07:59:37.256803", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 28, "skipped_start_count": 2, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 822838, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 33.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.8574, "prob_5_plus": 0.7482, "prob_6_plus": 0.6192, "prob_7_plus": 0.4859, "prob_8_plus": 0.3622, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 33.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 86.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 824540, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "prob_4_plus": 0.832, "prob_5_plus": 0.7115, "prob_6_plus": 0.5745, "prob_7_plus": 0.4385, "prob_8_plus": 0.3171, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 45.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 91.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.8, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 824862, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.8194, "prob_5_plus": 0.6938, "prob_6_plus": 0.5536, "prob_7_plus": 0.4169, "prob_8_plus": 0.2972, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 41.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 88.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.2, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823973, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 0.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 0.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 71.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823488, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 39.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.7692, "prob_5_plus": 0.6262, "prob_6_plus": 0.4772, "prob_7_plus": 0.3414, "prob_8_plus": 0.2303, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 39.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 65.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823161, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 42.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 42.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.888, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 94.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 175.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 85.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 81.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823323, "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.761, "prob_5_plus": 0.6155, "prob_6_plus": 0.4655, "prob_7_plus": 0.3304, "prob_8_plus": 0.2209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.3, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823488, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 39.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 39.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 89.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.5 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 81.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823892, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "prob_4_plus": 0.7369, "prob_5_plus": 0.585, "prob_6_plus": 0.433, "prob_7_plus": 0.3001, "prob_8_plus": 0.1957, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 89.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 85.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 84.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 824540, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, 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{ "hitter_name": "Anthony Volpe", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823811, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 40.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 40.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 101.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 822838, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 33.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.5292, "prob_5_plus": 0.3546, "prob_6_plus": 0.2175, "prob_7_plus": 0.1232, "prob_8_plus": 0.0651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 33.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.2, "expected_contact_quality": 100.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 824945, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.7, 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"Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 38.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.8, "expected_contact_quality": 119.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 824701, "pitcher_id": 690990, "pitcher_name": "Cade Horton", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.5166, "prob_5_plus": 0.3423, "prob_6_plus": 0.2074, "prob_7_plus": 0.116, "prob_8_plus": 0.0605, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8555.0, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.9, 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"temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 36.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 39.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 824701, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "prob_4_plus": 0.3829, "prob_5_plus": 0.2228, "prob_6_plus": 0.1174, "prob_7_plus": 0.0568, "prob_8_plus": 0.0255, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 37.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 48.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 26.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.2, "expected_contact_quality": 96.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-03-28", "game_pk": 823323, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.3625, "prob_5_plus": 0.2062, "prob_6_plus": 0.1061, "prob_7_plus": 0.0501, "prob_8_plus": 0.0219, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 27.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 20.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }