{ "date": "2026-03-31", "generated_at": "2026-03-31T07:17:07.327758", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 823158, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.8599, "prob_5_plus": 0.752, "prob_6_plus": 0.624, "prob_7_plus": 0.4911, "prob_8_plus": 0.3672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 46.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.989, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Anthony Volpe", "matchup_score": 80.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.8, "expected_contact_quality": 97.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 824212, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.51, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "prob_4_plus": 0.8445, "prob_5_plus": 0.7293, "prob_6_plus": 0.5961, "prob_7_plus": 0.4611, "prob_8_plus": 0.3384, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 83.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.7, "expected_contact_quality": 101.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 823807, "pitcher_id": 605540, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Woodruff", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7949.0, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.909, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 95.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "matchup_score": 88.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 88.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.4, "expected_contact_quality": 73.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 823158, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "prob_4_plus": 0.7743, "prob_5_plus": 0.6328, "prob_6_plus": 0.4844, "prob_7_plus": 0.3483, "prob_8_plus": 0.2363, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 46.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.989, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.6, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 823322, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "prob_4_plus": 0.7703, "prob_5_plus": 0.6275, "prob_6_plus": 0.4786, "prob_7_plus": 0.3428, "prob_8_plus": 0.2315, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 69.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 823969, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "prob_4_plus": 0.761, "prob_5_plus": 0.6155, "prob_6_plus": 0.4655, "prob_7_plus": 0.3304, "prob_8_plus": 0.2209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.4, "expected_contact_quality": 105.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.8, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 825107, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 824699, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.6798, "prob_5_plus": 0.516, "prob_6_plus": 0.363, "prob_7_plus": 0.2381, "prob_8_plus": 0.1465, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 43.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.908, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.3, "expected_contact_quality": 134.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.3, "expected_contact_quality": 89.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "game_pk": 822836, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.134, "prob_4_plus": 0.673, "prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 83.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.2, "expected_contact_quality": 61.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 78.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.0 } ], 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"hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 52.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 127.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 682227, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Williamson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 676571, "pitcher_name": "PJ Poulin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 660761, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Suarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 660271, "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }