{ "date": "2026-04-01", "generated_at": "2026-04-01T07:35:40.148498", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 30, "skipped_start_count": 0, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 824940, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 7.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.8927, "prob_5_plus": 0.8021, "prob_6_plus": 0.6881, "prob_7_plus": 0.5628, "prob_8_plus": 0.4391, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 96.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 96.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 166.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 91.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 824211, "pitcher_id": 676979, "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 7.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.19, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.8861, "prob_5_plus": 0.7917, "prob_6_plus": 0.6745, "prob_7_plus": 0.5472, "prob_8_plus": 0.4232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25330.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 95.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 182.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 825106, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.8473, "prob_5_plus": 0.7334, "prob_6_plus": 0.601, "prob_7_plus": 0.4664, "prob_8_plus": 0.3434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 89.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "matchup_score": 84.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 78.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 822835, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 40.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.8459, "prob_5_plus": 0.7314, "prob_6_plus": 0.5986, "prob_7_plus": 0.4637, "prob_8_plus": 0.3409, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 40.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 82.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 80.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 823483, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.8289, "prob_5_plus": 0.7071, "prob_6_plus": 0.5694, "prob_7_plus": 0.4331, "prob_8_plus": 0.3121, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.056, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 824536, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.66, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "prob_4_plus": 0.8266, "prob_5_plus": 0.7038, "prob_6_plus": 0.5655, "prob_7_plus": 0.4291, "prob_8_plus": 0.3084, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 85.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 96.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt McLain", "matchup_score": 93.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.5, "expected_contact_quality": 75.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 93.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 823970, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "adjustment_delta": -0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "prob_4_plus": 0.8258, "prob_5_plus": 0.7027, "prob_6_plus": 0.5642, "prob_7_plus": 0.4277, "prob_8_plus": 0.3071, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 94.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 84.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 81.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 823806, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 36.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.941, "prob_4_plus": 0.8178, "prob_5_plus": 0.6915, "prob_6_plus": 0.551, "prob_7_plus": 0.4142, "prob_8_plus": 0.2947, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 36.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.898, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 80.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-01", "game_pk": 823078, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.913, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 90.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 89.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], 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"expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.1, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } } ], "skipped_starts": [] }