{ "date": "2026-04-02", "generated_at": "2026-04-02T07:09:11.045386", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 7, "skipped_start_count": 1, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 824133, "pitcher_id": 666142, "pitcher_name": "Cole Ragans", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "prob_4_plus": 0.8587, "prob_5_plus": 0.7501, "prob_6_plus": 0.6216, "prob_7_plus": 0.4885, "prob_8_plus": 0.3647, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21380.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 177.3, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "matchup_score": 88.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 824621, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.132, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 83.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 823242, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.913, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 101.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 52.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 140.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 824133, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6563, "prob_5_plus": 0.4889, "prob_6_plus": 0.3368, "prob_7_plus": 0.216, "prob_8_plus": 0.1298, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 825105, "pitcher_id": 669194, "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 101.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 37.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 115.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 823242, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "prob_4_plus": 0.5923, "prob_5_plus": 0.4188, "prob_6_plus": 0.2724, "prob_7_plus": 0.1643, "prob_8_plus": 0.0926, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.913, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 66.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-02", "game_pk": 824621, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "prob_5_plus": 0.393, "prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "prob_7_plus": 0.147, "prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.132, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 116.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 36.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }