{ "date": "2026-04-03", "generated_at": "2026-04-03T08:01:30.535149", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 4, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824621, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.9, "wind_speed_mph": 17.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.8234, "prob_5_plus": 0.6994, "prob_6_plus": 0.5602, "prob_7_plus": 0.4237, "prob_8_plus": 0.3034, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 41.9, "wind_speed_mph": 17.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.884, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 83.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 822919, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.8161, "prob_5_plus": 0.6892, "prob_6_plus": 0.5483, "prob_7_plus": 0.4115, "prob_8_plus": 0.2922, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 76.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 75.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824786, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.8102, "prob_5_plus": 0.6811, "prob_6_plus": 0.5389, "prob_7_plus": 0.4019, "prob_8_plus": 0.2836, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 82.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 80.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824299, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.7, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 69.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 823406, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.7906, "prob_5_plus": 0.6545, "prob_6_plus": 0.5085, "prob_7_plus": 0.3718, "prob_8_plus": 0.2567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 68.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 88.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 83.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.0, "expected_contact_quality": 99.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 82.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824056, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.62, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "prob_4_plus": 0.785, "prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 88.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824377, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.69, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.7811, "prob_5_plus": 0.6418, "prob_6_plus": 0.4944, "prob_7_plus": 0.358, "prob_8_plus": 0.2446, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.096, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 78.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.1, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824786, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 823568, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.155, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 68.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.8, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.5, "expected_contact_quality": 131.6 } ], 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49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 101.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 825026, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "prob_4_plus": 0.5607, "prob_5_plus": 0.3861, "prob_6_plus": 0.2439, "prob_7_plus": 0.1426, "prob_8_plus": 0.0778, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 34.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.4, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 823240, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.5555, "prob_5_plus": 0.3808, "prob_6_plus": 0.2394, "prob_7_plus": 0.1393, "prob_8_plus": 0.0756, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.912, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 103.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "game_pk": 824299, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.43, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "prob_4_plus": 0.439, "prob_5_plus": 0.2705, "prob_6_plus": 0.1516, "prob_7_plus": 0.0782, "prob_8_plus": 0.0375, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 691799, "pitcher_name": "Grant Taylor", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 679883, "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }