{ "date": "2026-04-04", "generated_at": "2026-04-04T08:45:20.702772", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 824378, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "prob_4_plus": 0.8437, "prob_5_plus": 0.7283, "prob_6_plus": 0.5948, "prob_7_plus": 0.4598, "prob_8_plus": 0.3371, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 45.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.071, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 824295, "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 83.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 72.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.3, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 822757, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.018, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 87.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.8, "expected_contact_quality": 110.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 824460, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 823569, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 823404, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 61.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.2, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 825104, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.928, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 109.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.5, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 133.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 823569, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "prob_4_plus": 0.6703, "prob_5_plus": 0.5049, "prob_6_plus": 0.3522, "prob_7_plus": 0.2289, "prob_8_plus": 0.1395, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "matchup_score": 46.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 824134, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 42.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.945, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 45.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 103.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 45.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 823239, "pitcher_id": 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"hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 26.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "game_pk": 824782, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 36.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "prob_4_plus": 0.3234, "prob_5_plus": 0.1757, "prob_6_plus": 0.0862, "prob_7_plus": 0.0387, "prob_8_plus": 0.0161, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 14.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 36.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.934, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 35.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.8, "expected_contact_quality": 87.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Caleb Durbin", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 45.8, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 17.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.0, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 691799, "pitcher_name": "Grant Taylor", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 689254, "pitcher_name": "Mason Fluharty", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 679883, "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687075, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 806960, "pitcher_name": "Luis Morales", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 837227, "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 813349, "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690953, "pitcher_name": "Mick Abel", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 571927, "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }