{ "date": "2026-04-05", "generated_at": "2026-04-05T09:36:13.625106", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 24, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823238, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 57.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "prob_4_plus": 0.8042, "prob_5_plus": 0.6728, "prob_6_plus": 0.5293, "prob_7_plus": 0.3924, "prob_8_plus": 0.2749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 66.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 107.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 106.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823566, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 45.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 23.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.7953, "prob_5_plus": 0.6607, "prob_6_plus": 0.5155, "prob_7_plus": 0.3786, "prob_8_plus": 0.2627, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.121, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 75.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 61.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824053, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 64.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 82.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.0, "expected_contact_quality": 90.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 822917, "pitcher_id": 683004, "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 57.6, "opportunity_score": 66.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 106.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823238, "pitcher_id": 673540, "pitcher_name": "Kodai Senga", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "skill_score": 49.8, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.7369, "prob_5_plus": 0.585, "prob_6_plus": 0.433, "prob_7_plus": 0.3001, "prob_8_plus": 0.1957, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18182.0, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 66.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824131, "pitcher_id": 663460, "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.7277, "prob_5_plus": 0.5734, "prob_6_plus": 0.421, "prob_7_plus": 0.2891, "prob_8_plus": 0.1868, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9767.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 77.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.6 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824459, "pitcher_id": 665795, "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 50.1, "opportunity_score": 34.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "temperature_f": 37.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.04, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 74.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.5, "expected_contact_quality": 101.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 68.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 65.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823405, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.5, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 48.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 45.5, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 71.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824781, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 84.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "prob_4_plus": 0.702, "prob_5_plus": 0.5422, "prob_6_plus": 0.3891, "prob_7_plus": 0.2607, "prob_8_plus": 0.1641, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.057, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.2, "expected_contact_quality": 64.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 825025, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "skill_score": 3.0, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.6917, "prob_5_plus": 0.53, "prob_6_plus": 0.3768, "prob_7_plus": 0.25, "prob_8_plus": 0.1557, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 108.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 825102, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 51.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 109.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.6, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 138.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824460, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 37.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.04, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824620, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 42.4, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 67.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.963, "prob_4_plus": 0.652, "prob_5_plus": 0.484, "prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": 46.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.997, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824131, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 55.5, "opportunity_score": 32.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 85.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.95, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824459, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "prob_5_plus": 0.461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "prob_8_plus": 0.114, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": 37.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.04, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 40.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.8, "expected_contact_quality": 94.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 37.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 61.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823729, "pitcher_id": 680573, "pitcher_name": "Simeon Woods Richardson", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "skill_score": 23.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.42, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.938, "prob_4_plus": 0.6145, "prob_5_plus": 0.4426, "prob_6_plus": 0.2937, "prob_7_plus": 0.181, "prob_8_plus": 0.1043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17855.0, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.955, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 46.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.5, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824620, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.945, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 46.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.997, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 33.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 121.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 32.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823729, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.955, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 823566, "pitcher_id": 663978, "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 24.0, "opportunity_score": 27.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.5503, "prob_5_plus": 0.3756, "prob_6_plus": 0.235, "prob_7_plus": 0.136, "prob_8_plus": 0.0734, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17770.0, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.121, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 39.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 31.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824296, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 34.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 19.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "prob_4_plus": 0.4982, "prob_5_plus": 0.3247, "prob_6_plus": 0.1933, "prob_7_plus": 0.1061, "prob_8_plus": 0.0543, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 34.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824379, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "skill_score": 11.4, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.51, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.4757, "prob_5_plus": 0.3037, "prob_6_plus": 0.1767, "prob_7_plus": 0.0948, "prob_8_plus": 0.0473, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.081, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.9, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 38.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryson Stott", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824781, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 22.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.4757, "prob_5_plus": 0.3037, "prob_6_plus": 0.1767, "prob_7_plus": 0.0948, "prob_8_plus": 0.0473, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 56.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.057, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 29.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 29.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.9, "expected_contact_quality": 108.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 825102, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965, "prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 50.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 20.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "game_pk": 824379, "pitcher_id": 592836, "pitcher_name": "Taijuan Walker", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 5.1, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 55.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22139.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.081, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 621121, "pitcher_name": "Lance McCullers Jr.", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696270, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }