{ "date": "2026-04-06", "generated_at": "2026-04-06T08:07:08.300666", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824052, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.88, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 57.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "prob_4_plus": 0.8686, "prob_5_plus": 0.765, "prob_6_plus": 0.6403, "prob_7_plus": 0.5089, "prob_8_plus": 0.3847, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 86.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 92.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 92.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 90.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 822918, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "skill_score": 52.4, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.33, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.8312, "prob_5_plus": 0.7104, "prob_6_plus": 0.5733, "prob_7_plus": 0.4371, "prob_8_plus": 0.3159, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 823728, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 28.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "skill_score": 38.0, "opportunity_score": 20.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "prob_4_plus": 0.8161, "prob_5_plus": 0.6892, "prob_6_plus": 0.5483, "prob_7_plus": 0.4115, "prob_8_plus": 0.2922, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 28.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.896, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 82.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 77.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 89.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824783, "pitcher_id": 605540, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Woodruff", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "skill_score": 46.0, "opportunity_score": 27.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "prob_4_plus": 0.8136, "prob_5_plus": 0.6857, "prob_6_plus": 0.5443, "prob_7_plus": 0.4074, "prob_8_plus": 0.2885, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7949.0, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 95.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 95.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 822918, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 66.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 88.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.8033, "prob_5_plus": 0.6716, "prob_6_plus": 0.528, "prob_7_plus": 0.391, "prob_8_plus": 0.2737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 111.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 106.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824456, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 57.4, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 37.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824052, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 41.9, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 92.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 69.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 44.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 823728, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 28.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 79.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 28.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.896, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 113.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 45.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 822832, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 34.2, "wind_speed_mph": 1.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 34.2, "wind_speed_mph": 1.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 64.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.9, "expected_contact_quality": 123.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 54.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824783, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 23.5, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 41.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 40.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 117.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 823237, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.916, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 121.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824376, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 31.3, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 50.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.113, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 39.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 822755, "pitcher_id": 641793, "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 17.3, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "prob_7_plus": 0.155, "prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.6, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 823002, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 25.6, "opportunity_score": 37.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.2, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 823886, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 30.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "prob_4_plus": 0.5328, "prob_5_plus": 0.3581, "prob_6_plus": 0.2204, "prob_7_plus": 0.1253, "prob_8_plus": 0.0665, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 43.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.5, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 37.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 824456, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.5292, "prob_5_plus": 0.3546, "prob_6_plus": 0.2175, "prob_7_plus": 0.1232, "prob_8_plus": 0.0651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 37.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 70.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 822755, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 13.7, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.4642, "prob_5_plus": 0.2932, "prob_6_plus": 0.1686, "prob_7_plus": 0.0894, "prob_8_plus": 0.0441, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "game_pk": 823401, "pitcher_id": 608566, "pitcher_name": "Germ\u00e1n M\u00e1rquez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 19.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.3951, "prob_5_plus": 0.2328, "prob_6_plus": 0.1244, "prob_7_plus": 0.0611, "prob_8_plus": 0.0278, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 12.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11611.0, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 51.9, "expected_contact_quality": 64.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 21.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 112.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 18.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.8, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682227, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Williamson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691799, "pitcher_name": "Grant Taylor", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675989, "pitcher_name": "Cody Bolton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }