{ "date": "2026-04-08", "generated_at": "2026-04-08T08:23:17.366116", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 27, "skipped_start_count": 3, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 822833, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "expected_strikeouts": 6.74, "skill_score": 87.3, "opportunity_score": 46.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.8599, "prob_5_plus": 0.752, "prob_6_plus": 0.624, "prob_7_plus": 0.4911, "prob_8_plus": 0.3672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.908, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.0, "expected_contact_quality": 98.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 74.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824455, "pitcher_id": 666142, "pitcher_name": "Cole Ragans", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.56, "skill_score": 85.2, "opportunity_score": 23.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "prob_4_plus": 0.8479, "prob_5_plus": 0.7344, "prob_6_plus": 0.6023, "prob_7_plus": 0.4677, "prob_8_plus": 0.3447, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21380.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.001, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 176.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 95.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 94.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 822915, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 56.5, "opportunity_score": 32.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.37, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "prob_4_plus": 0.8234, "prob_5_plus": 0.6994, "prob_6_plus": 0.5602, "prob_7_plus": 0.4237, "prob_8_plus": 0.3034, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.4, "expected_contact_quality": 116.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824779, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "skill_score": 24.7, "opportunity_score": 49.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.8226, "prob_5_plus": 0.6983, "prob_6_plus": 0.5589, "prob_7_plus": 0.4223, "prob_8_plus": 0.3021, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 41.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.939, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 72.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 89.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.9, "expected_contact_quality": 99.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 110.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824617, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "skill_score": 60.3, "opportunity_score": 17.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 95.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.8016, "prob_5_plus": 0.6692, "prob_6_plus": 0.5252, "prob_7_plus": 0.3882, "prob_8_plus": 0.2713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 80.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.7, "expected_contact_quality": 64.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 79.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823234, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 60.0, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 81.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823726, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.951, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 85.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.8, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 822915, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 59.3, "opportunity_score": 46.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.7772, "prob_5_plus": 0.6367, "prob_6_plus": 0.4887, "prob_7_plus": 0.3524, "prob_8_plus": 0.2398, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "matchup_score": 75.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.4, "expected_contact_quality": 96.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823564, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 35.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 35.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 66.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7651, "prob_5_plus": 0.6209, "prob_6_plus": 0.4714, "prob_7_plus": 0.3359, "prob_8_plus": 0.2256, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 35.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 107.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823885, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 48.4, "opportunity_score": 21.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 89.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.904, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 78.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt McLain", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823000, "pitcher_id": 671212, "pitcher_name": "Joe Boyle", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 51.1, "opportunity_score": 41.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "adjustment_delta": -0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.934, "prob_4_plus": 0.7414, "prob_5_plus": 0.5906, "prob_6_plus": 0.439, "prob_7_plus": 0.3056, "prob_8_plus": 0.2002, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7682.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.91, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 44.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823403, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "skill_score": 42.7, "opportunity_score": 16.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.081, "prob_4_plus": 0.7403, "prob_5_plus": 0.5892, "prob_6_plus": 0.4375, "prob_7_plus": 0.3042, "prob_8_plus": 0.1991, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.958, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 82.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 76.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.6, "expected_contact_quality": 99.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824050, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 32.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824455, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 34.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.934, "prob_4_plus": 0.7229, "prob_5_plus": 0.5676, "prob_6_plus": 0.4149, "prob_7_plus": 0.2837, "prob_8_plus": 0.1824, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.001, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823885, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 34.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.904, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823726, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 18.0, "opportunity_score": 12.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.951, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.5, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823403, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 43.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.958, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.0, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 47.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823646, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 38.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 26.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 38.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 44.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 109.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823564, "pitcher_id": 622663, "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 35.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29975.0, "temperature_f": 35.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 136.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 104.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824374, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 29.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.131, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 38.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824617, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 24.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 43.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 101.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823234, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 20.4, "opportunity_score": 36.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 824374, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 1.1, "opportunity_score": 25.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "prob_4_plus": 0.5971, "prob_5_plus": 0.424, "prob_6_plus": 0.277, "prob_7_plus": 0.1678, "prob_8_plus": 0.095, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.131, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 67.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 69.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823646, "pitcher_id": 669194, "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 38.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 37.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.559, "prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "temperature_f": 38.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 114.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 98.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 118.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 823000, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 39.5, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.91, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 74.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 822753, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "prob_4_plus": 0.513, "prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "prob_7_plus": 0.114, "prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 40.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 36.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "game_pk": 822753, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "skill_score": 6.4, "opportunity_score": 37.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "prob_4_plus": 0.4604, "prob_5_plus": 0.2897, "prob_6_plus": 0.166, "prob_7_plus": 0.0876, "prob_8_plus": 0.043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 47.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 55.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 660271, "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }