{ "date": "2026-04-12", "generated_at": "2026-04-12T10:02:00.768021", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 25, "skipped_start_count": 4, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824293, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 7.0, "skill_score": 52.9, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 37.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.8757, "prob_5_plus": 0.7757, "prob_6_plus": 0.6538, "prob_7_plus": 0.524, "prob_8_plus": 0.3997, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.058, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 95.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 93.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824938, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.77, "skill_score": 58.7, "opportunity_score": 46.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.8618, "prob_5_plus": 0.7549, "prob_6_plus": 0.6275, "prob_7_plus": 0.4949, "prob_8_plus": 0.371, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 96.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 166.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 93.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 92.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823154, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "skill_score": 48.5, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 46.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.8394, "prob_5_plus": 0.7221, "prob_6_plus": 0.5873, "prob_7_plus": 0.4518, "prob_8_plus": 0.3296, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.91, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 87.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 77.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 90.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823317, "pitcher_id": 601713, "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 55.9, "opportunity_score": 20.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "prob_4_plus": 0.8372, "prob_5_plus": 0.7189, "prob_6_plus": 0.5835, "prob_7_plus": 0.4478, "prob_8_plus": 0.3259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 90.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 84.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823642, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "skill_score": 68.9, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "prob_4_plus": 0.8365, "prob_5_plus": 0.7179, "prob_6_plus": 0.5822, "prob_7_plus": 0.4465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3246, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.958, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 90.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 84.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823804, "pitcher_id": 605540, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Woodruff", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 23.6, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7949.0, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.1, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 91.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 90.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.6 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 822998, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 70.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 83.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "prob_4_plus": 0.784, "prob_5_plus": 0.6457, "prob_6_plus": 0.4987, "prob_7_plus": 0.3621, "prob_8_plus": 0.2482, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.921, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823966, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 64.1, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 94.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.762, "prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "prob_6_plus": 0.467, "prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.1, "expected_contact_quality": 104.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.2, "expected_contact_quality": 74.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824533, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 56.5, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 70.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.158, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 59.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 104.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 822828, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "skill_score": 52.9, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "prob_4_plus": 0.7346, "prob_5_plus": 0.5821, "prob_6_plus": 0.43, "prob_7_plus": 0.2973, "prob_8_plus": 0.1935, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 45.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 105.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.2, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 57.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824293, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 33.0, "opportunity_score": 79.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.058, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.3, "expected_contact_quality": 61.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824938, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 45.5, "opportunity_score": 33.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 92.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.7095, "prob_5_plus": 0.5513, "prob_6_plus": 0.3983, "prob_7_plus": 0.2688, "prob_8_plus": 0.1704, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824533, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.158, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823479, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 110.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824126, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 46.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 64.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.3, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824859, "pitcher_id": 700249, "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "prob_4_plus": 0.652, "prob_5_plus": 0.484, "prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 45.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 822828, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.54, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 45.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 71.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.6, "expected_contact_quality": 101.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 67.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823642, "pitcher_id": 650644, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Civale", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 36.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24505.0, "temperature_f": 52.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.958, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 110.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 46.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 103.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 119.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823075, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 15.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 35.6, "opportunity_score": 36.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 15.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 57.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824696, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.116, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 51.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 42.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 106.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 822998, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 32.9, "opportunity_score": 19.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "prob_4_plus": 0.5923, "prob_5_plus": 0.4188, "prob_6_plus": 0.2724, "prob_7_plus": 0.1643, "prob_8_plus": 0.0926, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 83.3, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.921, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 125.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 108.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 824859, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.7, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 43.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 93.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 35.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.4, "expected_contact_quality": 123.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823804, "pitcher_id": 641793, "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 28.4, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.1, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 39.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823317, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.953, "prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 51.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-12", "game_pk": 823075, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 15.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 8.9, "opportunity_score": 33.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.5019, "prob_5_plus": 0.3283, "prob_6_plus": 0.1961, "prob_7_plus": 0.1081, "prob_8_plus": 0.0555, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 15.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 51.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.5, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 32.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.3, "expected_contact_quality": 112.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691799, "pitcher_name": "Grant Taylor", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }