{ "date": "2026-04-13", "generated_at": "2026-04-13T08:10:35.471225", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 1, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823725, "pitcher_id": 676979, "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.34, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 68.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 23.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 7.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.8937, "prob_5_plus": 0.8036, "prob_6_plus": 0.6901, "prob_7_plus": 0.5651, "prob_8_plus": 0.4415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25330.0, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 95.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 204.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.9, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 84.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823481, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 75.7, "opportunity_score": 50.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjustment_delta": -0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "prob_7_plus": 0.406, "prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823400, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 42.7, "opportunity_score": 12.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.98, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 86.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 104.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 825024, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 64.0, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "prob_6_plus": 0.493, "prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 86.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823153, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 28.2, "opportunity_score": 63.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "prob_4_plus": 0.7772, "prob_5_plus": 0.6367, "prob_6_plus": 0.4887, "prob_7_plus": 0.3524, "prob_8_plus": 0.2398, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.1, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823073, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 73.9, "opportunity_score": 54.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.7763, "prob_5_plus": 0.6354, "prob_6_plus": 0.4873, "prob_7_plus": 0.3511, "prob_8_plus": 0.2386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 64.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.7, "expected_contact_quality": 73.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823563, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 35.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.7672, "prob_5_plus": 0.6235, "prob_6_plus": 0.4743, "prob_7_plus": 0.3386, "prob_8_plus": 0.228, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.113, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 66.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.5, "expected_contact_quality": 89.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823563, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 32.5, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.7535, "prob_5_plus": 0.606, "prob_6_plus": 0.4553, "prob_7_plus": 0.3207, "prob_8_plus": 0.2128, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.113, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 67.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 118.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 824937, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 48.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 41.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.747, "prob_5_plus": 0.5977, "prob_6_plus": 0.4464, "prob_7_plus": 0.3124, "prob_8_plus": 0.2059, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.021, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.6, "expected_contact_quality": 116.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 824937, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 53.9, "opportunity_score": 27.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.021, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.2, "expected_contact_quality": 115.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 63.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 825024, "pitcher_id": 622663, "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 15.1, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29975.0, "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823153, "pitcher_id": 681347, "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 29.5, "opportunity_score": 40.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "temperature_f": 46.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.6, "expected_contact_quality": 143.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.5, "expected_contact_quality": 141.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823725, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 21.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 103.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823964, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 19.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 84.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 52.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.934, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 52.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.5, "expected_contact_quality": 119.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 824856, "pitcher_id": 669194, "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 15.5, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 90.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 40.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 37.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823073, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.04, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "prob_4_plus": 0.5521, "prob_5_plus": 0.3773, "prob_6_plus": 0.2365, "prob_7_plus": 0.1371, "prob_8_plus": 0.0742, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 50.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 43.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 112.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823400, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 17.7, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.98, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "game_pk": 823481, "pitcher_id": 665871, "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 5.1, "opportunity_score": 30.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.5075, "prob_5_plus": 0.3335, "prob_6_plus": 0.2003, "prob_7_plus": 0.111, "prob_8_plus": 0.0574, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.9, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 126.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }