{ "date": "2026-04-14", "generated_at": "2026-04-14T07:10:30.547610", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824292, "pitcher_id": 666142, "pitcher_name": "Cole Ragans", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "skill_score": 81.4, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "prob_4_plus": 0.8365, "prob_5_plus": 0.7179, "prob_6_plus": 0.5822, "prob_7_plus": 0.4465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3246, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21380.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.907, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 81.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.8, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823802, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.6, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 56.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "prob_4_plus": 0.8258, "prob_5_plus": 0.7027, "prob_6_plus": 0.5642, "prob_7_plus": 0.4277, "prob_8_plus": 0.3071, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 85.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 825022, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "skill_score": 67.9, "opportunity_score": 33.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 94.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.821, "prob_5_plus": 0.696, "prob_6_plus": 0.5563, "prob_7_plus": 0.4196, "prob_8_plus": 0.2997, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 50.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 87.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823965, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 40.8, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 55.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.95, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 87.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 75.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823723, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "prob_4_plus": 0.785, "prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 53.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.959, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 90.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823478, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 47.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "prob_6_plus": 0.493, "prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 72.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.101, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 63.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 117.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823802, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 84.0, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.9, "expected_contact_quality": 100.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824531, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 57.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.7692, "prob_5_plus": 0.6262, "prob_6_plus": 0.4772, "prob_7_plus": 0.3414, "prob_8_plus": 0.2303, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.09, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 102.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.6, "expected_contact_quality": 127.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823315, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 34.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 77.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.919, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 73.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.3, "expected_contact_quality": 111.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.0, "expected_contact_quality": 112.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824292, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "skill_score": 17.0, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.907, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 66.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823315, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 54.2, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.919, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 82.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 78.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823072, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 59.8, "opportunity_score": 36.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 76.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.73, "prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "prob_6_plus": 0.424, "prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "prob_8_plus": 0.189, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.5, "expected_contact_quality": 102.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 70.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823562, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 37.4, "opportunity_score": 38.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.08, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.0, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824531, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 22.8, "opportunity_score": 25.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.693, "prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.09, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 825022, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 50.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.8, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824853, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 13.8, "opportunity_score": 47.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 115.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823398, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 20.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824935, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "prob_4_plus": 0.6418, "prob_5_plus": 0.4726, "prob_6_plus": 0.3214, "prob_7_plus": 0.2033, "prob_8_plus": 0.1204, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.0, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 39.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 132.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 38.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.8, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824853, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "prob_4_plus": 0.6418, "prob_5_plus": 0.4726, "prob_6_plus": 0.3214, "prob_7_plus": 0.2033, "prob_8_plus": 0.1204, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 133.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 824210, "pitcher_id": 676467, "pitcher_name": "Colton Gordon", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 0.8, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5920.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823072, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.4526, "prob_5_plus": 0.2827, "prob_6_plus": 0.1607, "prob_7_plus": 0.0841, "prob_8_plus": 0.041, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 42.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.0, "expected_contact_quality": 89.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-14", "game_pk": 823398, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 36.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 57.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 32.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 702303, "pitcher_name": "Riley Martin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690953, "pitcher_name": "Mick Abel", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702273, "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }