{ "date": "2026-04-16", "generated_at": "2026-04-16T06:43:58.260914", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 10, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 823560, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.15, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 76.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "prob_4_plus": 0.8169, "prob_5_plus": 0.6903, "prob_6_plus": 0.5496, "prob_7_plus": 0.4128, "prob_8_plus": 0.2934, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.085, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 79.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 825023, "pitcher_id": 683004, "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "skill_score": 68.3, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.7277, "prob_5_plus": 0.5734, "prob_6_plus": 0.421, "prob_7_plus": 0.2891, "prob_8_plus": 0.1868, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 69.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.8, "expected_contact_quality": 98.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 109.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 825023, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.7205, "prob_5_plus": 0.5647, "prob_6_plus": 0.4119, "prob_7_plus": 0.281, "prob_8_plus": 0.1802, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 823313, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 32.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.961, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 74.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 824289, "pitcher_id": 663460, "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9767.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.4, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 824453, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 39.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 70.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.6418, "prob_5_plus": 0.4726, "prob_6_plus": 0.3214, "prob_7_plus": 0.2033, "prob_8_plus": 0.1204, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 78.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.8, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.2, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 824530, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 29.1, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "prob_7_plus": 0.192, "prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.151, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 823801, "pitcher_id": 571578, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 26.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.5363, "prob_5_plus": 0.3616, "prob_6_plus": 0.2233, "prob_7_plus": 0.1274, "prob_8_plus": 0.0678, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.6, "expected_contact_quality": 74.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 37.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.1, "expected_contact_quality": 133.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 823313, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 13.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "prob_5_plus": 0.316, "prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.961, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 26.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.2, "expected_contact_quality": 135.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 25.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.5, "expected_contact_quality": 114.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-16", "game_pk": 824289, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.4448, "prob_5_plus": 0.2757, "prob_6_plus": 0.1555, "prob_7_plus": 0.0807, "prob_8_plus": 0.039, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.1, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687075, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 673929, "pitcher_name": "Jordan Leasure", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 571927, "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680802, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weiss", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675848, "pitcher_name": "Juan Mejia", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }