{ "date": "2026-04-18", "generated_at": "2026-04-18T11:06:35.949028", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 29, "skipped_start_count": 1, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824775, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "skill_score": 50.9, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.8668, "prob_5_plus": 0.7623, "prob_6_plus": 0.6368, "prob_7_plus": 0.5051, "prob_8_plus": 0.381, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 93.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 91.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 91.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823474, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "skill_score": 47.5, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.8473, "prob_5_plus": 0.7334, "prob_6_plus": 0.601, "prob_7_plus": 0.4664, "prob_8_plus": 0.3434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.043, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 91.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "matchup_score": 89.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823474, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "skill_score": 80.2, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "prob_4_plus": 0.8297, "prob_5_plus": 0.7082, "prob_6_plus": 0.5707, "prob_7_plus": 0.4345, "prob_8_plus": 0.3134, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.043, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 72.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823394, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 45.9, "opportunity_score": 9.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 96.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 84.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823882, "pitcher_id": 605540, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Woodruff", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "skill_score": 36.2, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 57.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "prob_4_plus": 0.8068, "prob_5_plus": 0.6764, "prob_6_plus": 0.5334, "prob_7_plus": 0.3965, "prob_8_plus": 0.2786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7949.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.945, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 95.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 95.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 175.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 95.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824451, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.5, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 70.9, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "prob_4_plus": 0.8059, "prob_5_plus": 0.6752, "prob_6_plus": 0.5321, "prob_7_plus": 0.3951, "prob_8_plus": 0.2774, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 43.5, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 89.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.0, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 148.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824694, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 40.8, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 60.5, "opportunity_score": 35.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 86.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 40.8, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823721, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.7, "wind_speed_mph": 16.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 53.2, "opportunity_score": 59.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.7925, "prob_5_plus": 0.657, "prob_6_plus": 0.5113, "prob_7_plus": 0.3745, "prob_8_plus": 0.2591, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 43.7, "wind_speed_mph": 16.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 78.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.6, "expected_contact_quality": 84.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 69.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823151, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 52.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.915, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823151, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 52.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 67.5, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.7753, "prob_5_plus": 0.6341, "prob_6_plus": 0.4858, "prob_7_plus": 0.3497, "prob_8_plus": 0.2374, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 52.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.915, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 116.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.0, "expected_contact_quality": 141.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824372, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 40.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 48.2, "opportunity_score": 27.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 99.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": 40.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.09, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 91.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 88.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 88.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824049, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 35.8, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.8, "expected_contact_quality": 69.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823882, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 24.0, "opportunity_score": 85.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.945, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 108.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 43.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823558, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 35.3, "opportunity_score": 26.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.08, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 825020, "pitcher_id": 622663, "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 29.3, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29975.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.1, "expected_contact_quality": 63.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 63.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824451, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.5, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 20.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 43.5, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.7 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.2, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824694, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 40.8, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 43.7, "opportunity_score": 56.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 40.8, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 46.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 116.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.7, "expected_contact_quality": 104.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 140.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 825098, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 39.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.3, "expected_contact_quality": 115.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824775, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "prob_7_plus": 0.197, "prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 49.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 46.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823558, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "prob_7_plus": 0.197, "prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.08, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 121.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 42.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823721, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.7, "wind_speed_mph": 16.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 13.4, "opportunity_score": 39.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "prob_6_plus": 0.283, "prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 43.7, "wind_speed_mph": 16.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 823394, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 15.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 64.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824372, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 40.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "prob_5_plus": 0.393, "prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "prob_7_plus": 0.147, "prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 40.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.09, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 109.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 822751, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 8.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.021, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 49.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 825020, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 40.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 69.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 40.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 825098, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.5166, "prob_5_plus": 0.3423, "prob_6_plus": 0.2074, "prob_7_plus": 0.116, "prob_8_plus": 0.0605, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 822751, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.021, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 44.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 43.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824049, "pitcher_id": 608566, "pitcher_name": "Germ\u00e1n M\u00e1rquez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 32.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "prob_4_plus": 0.4604, "prob_5_plus": 0.2897, "prob_6_plus": 0.166, "prob_7_plus": 0.0876, "prob_8_plus": 0.043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11611.0, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 30.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "game_pk": 824206, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "prob_4_plus": 0.4487, "prob_5_plus": 0.2792, "prob_6_plus": 0.1581, "prob_7_plus": 0.0824, "prob_8_plus": 0.0399, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.917, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 39.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 621121, "pitcher_name": "Lance McCullers Jr.", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }