{ "date": "2026-04-19", "generated_at": "2026-04-19T11:11:25.353987", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824777, "pitcher_id": 676979, "pitcher_name": "Garrett Crochet", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 7.16, "skill_score": 29.0, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.8845, "prob_5_plus": 0.7892, "prob_6_plus": 0.6713, "prob_7_plus": 0.5436, "prob_8_plus": 0.4195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25330.0, "temperature_f": 41.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.009, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 93.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 89.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 85.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823556, "pitcher_id": 666142, "pitcher_name": "Cole Ragans", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 6.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.67, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "prob_4_plus": 0.8297, "prob_5_plus": 0.7082, "prob_6_plus": 0.5707, "prob_7_plus": 0.4345, "prob_8_plus": 0.3134, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21380.0, "temperature_f": 45.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 91.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 87.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "matchup_score": 78.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823881, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 37.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "prob_4_plus": 0.8161, "prob_5_plus": 0.6892, "prob_6_plus": 0.5483, "prob_7_plus": 0.4115, "prob_8_plus": 0.2922, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.95, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 164.1, "expected_contact_quality": 61.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823150, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 58.2, "opportunity_score": 27.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 59.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.4, "expected_contact_quality": 116.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824047, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "skill_score": 26.2, "opportunity_score": 33.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 70.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.65, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.131, "prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 83.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.8, "expected_contact_quality": 69.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 82.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823150, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 36.7, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 59.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.927, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824452, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 57.3, "opportunity_score": 31.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 50.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.3, "expected_contact_quality": 108.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 98.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 825100, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.945, "prob_4_plus": 0.7589, "prob_5_plus": 0.6128, "prob_6_plus": 0.4626, "prob_7_plus": 0.3276, "prob_8_plus": 0.2186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824777, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 26.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.113, "prob_4_plus": 0.7535, "prob_5_plus": 0.606, "prob_6_plus": 0.4553, "prob_7_plus": 0.3207, "prob_8_plus": 0.2128, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 41.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.009, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 71.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.6, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 67.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 59.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 822750, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 45.4, "opportunity_score": 45.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 59.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823718, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "skill_score": 18.3, "opportunity_score": 34.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "prob_4_plus": 0.7145, "prob_5_plus": 0.5573, "prob_6_plus": 0.4043, "prob_7_plus": 0.2742, "prob_8_plus": 0.1748, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 45.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 73.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823475, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 42.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 20.2, "opportunity_score": 37.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.707, "prob_5_plus": 0.5483, "prob_6_plus": 0.3952, "prob_7_plus": 0.2661, "prob_8_plus": 0.1683, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 42.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 101.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823556, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 53.8, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjustment_delta": -0.57, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.889, "prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 45.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 43.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.7, "expected_contact_quality": 90.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823881, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "skill_score": 38.3, "opportunity_score": 31.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.6917, "prob_5_plus": 0.53, "prob_6_plus": 0.3768, "prob_7_plus": 0.25, "prob_8_plus": 0.1557, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.95, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.8, "expected_contact_quality": 106.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824205, "pitcher_id": 681347, "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824452, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 43.6, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 50.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 70.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 68.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823718, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 45.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 20.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.51, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 45.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 64.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.4, "expected_contact_quality": 104.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 825018, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 39.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjustment_delta": -0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.941, "prob_4_plus": 0.6577, "prob_5_plus": 0.4905, "prob_6_plus": 0.3384, "prob_7_plus": 0.2173, "prob_8_plus": 0.1308, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 823393, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 17.0, "opportunity_score": 33.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 50.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 64.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 825100, "pitcher_id": 669194, "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 29.3, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.944, "prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "prob_5_plus": 0.446, "prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "prob_8_plus": 0.106, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 110.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 37.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.5, "expected_contact_quality": 97.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824371, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 33.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.124, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.5, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 121.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824691, "pitcher_id": 665871, "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 32.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "temperature_f": 41.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.926, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.7, "expected_contact_quality": 119.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.3, "expected_contact_quality": 118.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "game_pk": 824205, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 47.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "prob_4_plus": 0.4681, "prob_5_plus": 0.2967, "prob_6_plus": 0.1713, "prob_7_plus": 0.0912, "prob_8_plus": 0.0451, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 59.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 29.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 676571, "pitcher_name": "PJ Poulin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 668964, "pitcher_name": "Tobias Myers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702273, "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }