{ "date": "2026-04-21", "generated_at": "2026-04-21T19:50:52.195043", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824690, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "skill_score": 75.0, "opportunity_score": 65.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "prob_4_plus": 0.8094, "prob_5_plus": 0.6799, "prob_6_plus": 0.5375, "prob_7_plus": 0.4006, "prob_8_plus": 0.2823, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 80.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "matchup_score": 71.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.1, "expected_contact_quality": 96.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 71.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823236, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 43.6, "opportunity_score": 71.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.925, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 88.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 84.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824690, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 70.7, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.5, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.6, "expected_contact_quality": 105.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823148, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 25.8, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "prob_8_plus": 0.214, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 53.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.896, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 90.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 166.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 83.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.4, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.6, "expected_contact_quality": 89.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824127, "pitcher_id": 663460, "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "skill_score": 40.6, "opportunity_score": 32.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "prob_4_plus": 0.7346, "prob_5_plus": 0.5821, "prob_6_plus": 0.43, "prob_7_plus": 0.2973, "prob_8_plus": 0.1935, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9767.0, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 70.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 825099, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.6703, "prob_5_plus": 0.5049, "prob_6_plus": 0.3522, "prob_7_plus": 0.2289, "prob_8_plus": 0.1395, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823148, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 2.6, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 53.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.896, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.0, "expected_contact_quality": 119.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 57.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824773, "pitcher_id": 661563, "pitcher_name": "Luis Gil", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 34.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15506.0, "temperature_f": 37.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 47.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 111.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 44.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824127, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 19.7, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "prob_5_plus": 0.461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "prob_8_plus": 0.114, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 65.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 822914, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 15.1, "opportunity_score": 39.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "prob_7_plus": 0.192, "prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.3, "expected_contact_quality": 105.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 40.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.0, "expected_contact_quality": 110.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823236, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.962, "prob_4_plus": 0.6268, "prob_5_plus": 0.456, "prob_6_plus": 0.306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1908, "prob_8_plus": 0.1113, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.925, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 63.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.1, "expected_contact_quality": 108.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 40.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824290, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 31.1, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.2, "expected_contact_quality": 114.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823880, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "skill_score": 5.7, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.881, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 105.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 122.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823640, "pitcher_id": 680573, "pitcher_name": "Simeon Woods Richardson", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 41.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "prob_8_plus": 0.087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17855.0, "temperature_f": 43.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.939, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 39.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 116.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 39.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 128.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 823880, "pitcher_id": 663978, "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 24.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17770.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.881, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 45.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.1, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824045, "pitcher_id": 571578, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "skill_score": 33.0, "opportunity_score": 18.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "temperature_f": 58.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 46.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 825099, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "skill_score": 4.1, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "prob_4_plus": 0.4964, "prob_5_plus": 0.323, "prob_6_plus": 0.1919, "prob_7_plus": 0.1052, "prob_8_plus": 0.0537, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 30.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 62.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 27.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.2, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824369, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 32.0, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.148, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 64.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 40.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824045, "pitcher_id": 686799, "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "skill_score": 13.7, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.66, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "prob_4_plus": 0.4833, "prob_5_plus": 0.3107, "prob_6_plus": 0.1822, "prob_7_plus": 0.0985, "prob_8_plus": 0.0496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "temperature_f": 58.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 28.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 26.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 99.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 23.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 138.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 824290, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 13.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.4526, "prob_5_plus": 0.2827, "prob_6_plus": 0.1607, "prob_7_plus": 0.0841, "prob_8_plus": 0.041, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 34.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 32.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 32.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "game_pk": 822914, "pitcher_id": 669387, "pitcher_name": "Carmen Mlodzinski", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 19.9, "opportunity_score": 17.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.921, "prob_4_plus": 0.391, "prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "prob_8_plus": 0.027, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4653.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 32.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 27.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 26.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.5, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680802, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weiss", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 571927, "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 813349, "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 623474, "pitcher_name": "Jimmy Herget", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }