{ "date": "2026-04-27", "generated_at": "2026-04-28T06:33:49.164777", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 11, "skipped_start_count": 5, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 822825, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.97, "skill_score": 90.0, "opportunity_score": 56.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.97, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "prob_4_plus": 0.8739, "prob_5_plus": 0.7731, "prob_6_plus": 0.6505, "prob_7_plus": 0.5202, "prob_8_plus": 0.3959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 88.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 74.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 823961, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 36.2, "opportunity_score": 73.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.7998, "prob_5_plus": 0.6668, "prob_6_plus": 0.5225, "prob_7_plus": 0.3855, "prob_8_plus": 0.2688, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 90.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 87.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 85.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 822906, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 76.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.027, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "matchup_score": 67.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 822906, "pitcher_id": 683004, "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 51.2, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "prob_5_plus": 0.572, "prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.027, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 40.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 823719, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 43.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 22.8, "opportunity_score": 41.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "prob_4_plus": 0.7217, "prob_5_plus": 0.5661, "prob_6_plus": 0.4134, "prob_7_plus": 0.2823, "prob_8_plus": 0.1813, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 43.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 823311, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 80.4, "opportunity_score": 15.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.975, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.94, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.4, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 822825, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 30.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "prob_7_plus": 0.192, "prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 823395, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "prob_4_plus": 0.5725, "prob_5_plus": 0.3982, "prob_6_plus": 0.2543, "prob_7_plus": 0.1504, "prob_8_plus": 0.0831, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.6, "expected_contact_quality": 112.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 823961, "pitcher_id": 663978, "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 31.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.4738, "prob_5_plus": 0.3019, "prob_6_plus": 0.1754, "prob_7_plus": 0.0939, "prob_8_plus": 0.0468, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17770.0, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 45.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 34.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 141.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 31.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 823311, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.44, "skill_score": 29.9, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "prob_4_plus": 0.4409, "prob_5_plus": 0.2723, "prob_6_plus": 0.1529, "prob_7_plus": 0.079, "prob_8_plus": 0.038, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 13.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.94, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 44.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 20.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 71.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "game_pk": 824609, "pitcher_id": 686799, "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 61.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 27.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.099, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 35.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Luisangel Acu\u00f1a", "matchup_score": 31.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 571927, "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682254, "pitcher_name": "Mason Montgomery", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }