{ "date": "2026-04-28", "generated_at": "2026-04-28T06:50:03.865911", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823716, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 45.4, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.8266, "prob_5_plus": 0.7038, "prob_6_plus": 0.5655, "prob_7_plus": 0.4291, "prob_8_plus": 0.3084, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 41.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 89.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 76.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 63.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823473, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 58.9, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 26.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.8242, "prob_5_plus": 0.7005, "prob_6_plus": 0.5615, "prob_7_plus": 0.425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3046, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 51.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823716, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 41.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "skill_score": 34.5, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.8136, "prob_5_plus": 0.6857, "prob_6_plus": 0.5443, "prob_7_plus": 0.4074, "prob_8_plus": 0.2885, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 41.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.4, "expected_contact_quality": 104.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 72.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 106.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 72.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 822908, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 76.2, "opportunity_score": 28.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 77.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 86.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.2, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.2, "expected_contact_quality": 142.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 822908, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 45.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "prob_6_plus": 0.493, "prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824610, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 63.6, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "prob_8_plus": 0.214, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.1, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 73.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 825017, "pitcher_id": 663460, "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 34.6, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.62, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.134, "prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "prob_5_plus": 0.572, "prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9767.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 88.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824447, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 42.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "prob_4_plus": 0.693, "prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 63.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824849, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 13.7, "opportunity_score": 68.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 74.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 57.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 51.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823310, "pitcher_id": 665795, "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 19.9, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "temperature_f": 57.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.92, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 101.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824931, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 47.3, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.963, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 99.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 43.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.2, "expected_contact_quality": 138.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824610, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 51.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823798, "pitcher_id": 694477, "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 8.7, "opportunity_score": 29.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.5955, "prob_5_plus": 0.4223, "prob_6_plus": 0.2754, "prob_7_plus": 0.1666, "prob_8_plus": 0.0942, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9640.0, "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 52.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.6, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823473, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "prob_5_plus": 0.393, "prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "prob_7_plus": 0.147, "prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 51.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 61.9 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823636, "pitcher_id": 605280, "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 58.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.5641, "prob_5_plus": 0.3895, "prob_6_plus": 0.2468, "prob_7_plus": 0.1448, "prob_8_plus": 0.0793, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "temperature_f": 46.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.936, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 40.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 102.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.8, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 38.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823636, "pitcher_id": 641793, "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 46.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.5328, "prob_5_plus": 0.3581, "prob_6_plus": 0.2204, "prob_7_plus": 0.1253, "prob_8_plus": 0.0665, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "temperature_f": 46.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.936, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 44.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.9, "expected_contact_quality": 115.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824931, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 33.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 28.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 122.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 824447, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "prob_4_plus": 0.4814, "prob_5_plus": 0.3089, "prob_6_plus": 0.1808, "prob_7_plus": 0.0976, "prob_8_plus": 0.049, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 55.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 64.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.5, "expected_contact_quality": 98.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 54.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.3 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823310, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 22.3, "opportunity_score": 13.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 57.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.92, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 35.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.5, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 28.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 52.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "game_pk": 823956, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 3.2, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.389, "prob_5_plus": 0.2278, "prob_6_plus": 0.1209, "prob_7_plus": 0.0589, "prob_8_plus": 0.0267, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 18.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 53.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.0, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 31.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 65.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 24.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.9, "expected_contact_quality": 123.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 678906, "pitcher_name": "Kai-Wei Teng", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702056, "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 660271, "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }