{ "date": "2026-05-07", "generated_at": "2026-05-13T17:23:22.802561", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 14, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 823551, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 40.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.76, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "prob_7_plus": 0.38, "prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.1, "expected_contact_quality": 107.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 823306, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 76.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 76.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 824681, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 54.3, "opportunity_score": 55.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 33.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 58.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.3, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 95.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 823870, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 44.4, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.947, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 45.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 108.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 41.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.5, "expected_contact_quality": 144.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 824117, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 17.2, "opportunity_score": 67.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 16.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.2 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 823467, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 68.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.6, "expected_contact_quality": 110.9 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 825090, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 25.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 78.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "prob_4_plus": 0.6418, "prob_5_plus": 0.4726, "prob_6_plus": 0.3214, "prob_7_plus": 0.2033, "prob_8_plus": 0.1204, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 53.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.6, "expected_contact_quality": 102.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 823870, "pitcher_id": 700249, "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 50.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.6268, "prob_5_plus": 0.456, "prob_6_plus": 0.306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1908, "prob_8_plus": 0.1113, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.947, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "matchup_score": 49.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 822741, "pitcher_id": 663623, "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 38.5, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 51.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 106.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 48.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 825090, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 31.3, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.1, "expected_contact_quality": 96.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 822741, "pitcher_id": 680573, "pitcher_name": "Simeon Woods Richardson", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "prob_4_plus": 0.5274, "prob_5_plus": 0.3529, "prob_6_plus": 0.216, "prob_7_plus": 0.1222, "prob_8_plus": 0.0645, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17855.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 51.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 824117, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 6.1, "opportunity_score": 40.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "prob_4_plus": 0.513, "prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "prob_7_plus": 0.114, "prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.033, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.5, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.1, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 43.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 823306, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.47, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.4468, "prob_5_plus": 0.2775, "prob_6_plus": 0.1568, "prob_7_plus": 0.0815, "prob_8_plus": 0.0394, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.966, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 35.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-05-07", "game_pk": 824362, "pitcher_id": 500779, "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.33, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 32.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "prob_4_plus": 0.4192, "prob_5_plus": 0.2533, "prob_6_plus": 0.139, "prob_7_plus": 0.0701, "prob_8_plus": 0.0329, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25833.0, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.123, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.2, "expected_contact_quality": 109.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.8, "expected_contact_quality": 116.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 23.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.0, "expected_contact_quality": 142.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 621112, "pitcher_name": "Paul Blackburn", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687562, "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }