{ "date": "2026-05-17", "generated_at": "2026-05-17T14:46:28.311376", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 24, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823381, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.74, "skill_score": 34.8, "opportunity_score": 53.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.37, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "prob_4_plus": 0.8599, "prob_5_plus": 0.752, "prob_6_plus": 0.624, "prob_7_plus": 0.4911, "prob_8_plus": 0.3672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.031, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 96.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 96.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 92.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823628, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "skill_score": 32.1, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "prob_4_plus": 0.8194, "prob_5_plus": 0.6938, "prob_6_plus": 0.5536, "prob_7_plus": 0.4169, "prob_8_plus": 0.2972, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 85.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Paul Goldschmidt", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823381, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 55.6, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "prob_4_plus": 0.8119, "prob_5_plus": 0.6834, "prob_6_plus": 0.5416, "prob_7_plus": 0.4047, "prob_8_plus": 0.286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.031, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 96.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 86.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824436, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 81.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "prob_4_plus": 0.7897, "prob_5_plus": 0.6532, "prob_6_plus": 0.5071, "prob_7_plus": 0.3704, "prob_8_plus": 0.2554, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.3, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 59.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824279, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 63.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823138, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.7672, "prob_5_plus": 0.6235, "prob_6_plus": 0.4743, "prob_7_plus": 0.3386, "prob_8_plus": 0.228, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.886, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824279, "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 32.2, "opportunity_score": 19.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.7662, "prob_5_plus": 0.6222, "prob_6_plus": 0.4728, "prob_7_plus": 0.3373, "prob_8_plus": 0.2268, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 74.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.3, "expected_contact_quality": 96.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.3, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 96.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824192, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 41.9, "opportunity_score": 75.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 16.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 78.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.8, "expected_contact_quality": 104.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824923, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 20.8, "opportunity_score": 26.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 71.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.7, "expected_contact_quality": 115.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 97.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 825006, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "prob_4_plus": 0.6373, "prob_5_plus": 0.4676, "prob_6_plus": 0.3168, "prob_7_plus": 0.1995, "prob_8_plus": 0.1176, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.91, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 51.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824358, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "prob_4_plus": 0.6373, "prob_5_plus": 0.4676, "prob_6_plus": 0.3168, "prob_7_plus": 0.1995, "prob_8_plus": 0.1176, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823708, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 22.2, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 59.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.7, "expected_contact_quality": 106.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 822982, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 90.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "skill_score": 37.5, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.6161, "prob_5_plus": 0.4443, "prob_6_plus": 0.2953, "prob_7_plus": 0.1822, "prob_8_plus": 0.1052, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 90.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.027, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 87.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.7, "expected_contact_quality": 65.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823138, "pitcher_id": 608337, "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.886, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.8, "expected_contact_quality": 65.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 146.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 40.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 141.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 822982, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 90.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 29.1, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 90.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.027, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 71.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.8, "expected_contact_quality": 102.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824436, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 15.1, "opportunity_score": 31.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 67.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824599, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.5503, "prob_5_plus": 0.3756, "prob_6_plus": 0.235, "prob_7_plus": 0.136, "prob_8_plus": 0.0734, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.142, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823058, "pitcher_id": 663568, "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 7.7, "opportunity_score": 51.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.1, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824358, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "prob_4_plus": 0.5381, "prob_5_plus": 0.3634, "prob_6_plus": 0.2247, "prob_7_plus": 0.1285, "prob_8_plus": 0.0685, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 35.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 30.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824923, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 20.2, "opportunity_score": 35.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.3, "expected_contact_quality": 107.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 42.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 140.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 825006, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "prob_4_plus": 0.5184, "prob_5_plus": 0.3441, "prob_6_plus": 0.2088, "prob_7_plus": 0.1171, "prob_8_plus": 0.0612, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.91, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.5, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 824599, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 34.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.142, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 35.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 128.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 823058, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.45, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 42.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "prob_4_plus": 0.4429, "prob_5_plus": 0.274, "prob_6_plus": 0.1542, "prob_7_plus": 0.0799, "prob_8_plus": 0.0385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 86.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 35.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "game_pk": 822738, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.35, "skill_score": 2.0, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.4232, "prob_5_plus": 0.2567, "prob_6_plus": 0.1415, "prob_7_plus": 0.0717, "prob_8_plus": 0.0338, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 35.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 33.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 33.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 663992, "pitcher_name": "Richard Lovelady", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695684, "pitcher_name": "Elmer Rodr\u00edguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }