{ "date": "2026-05-21", "generated_at": "2026-05-21T09:46:31.801859", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 11, "skipped_start_count": 3, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 824031, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "skill_score": 51.3, "opportunity_score": 63.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "prob_4_plus": 0.8102, "prob_5_plus": 0.6811, "prob_6_plus": 0.5389, "prob_7_plus": 0.4019, "prob_8_plus": 0.2836, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 84.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 172.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.8, "expected_contact_quality": 71.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.0, "expected_contact_quality": 138.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 823545, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 74.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.7831, "prob_5_plus": 0.6444, "prob_6_plus": 0.4973, "prob_7_plus": 0.3607, "prob_8_plus": 0.247, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.071, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 823864, "pitcher_id": 675911, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 52.8, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 65.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.69, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.143, "prob_4_plus": 0.7589, "prob_5_plus": 0.6128, "prob_6_plus": 0.4626, "prob_7_plus": 0.3276, "prob_8_plus": 0.2186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 94.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.1, "expected_contact_quality": 65.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 94.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.8, "expected_contact_quality": 61.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 82.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 169.5, "expected_contact_quality": 101.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 824274, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.9, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 101.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 61.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 823864, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 75.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 108.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.8, "expected_contact_quality": 128.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 825083, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 75.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.54, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 63.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 824274, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 33.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 72.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.933, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.9, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 67.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 97.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 56.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 824031, "pitcher_id": 622663, "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 13.6, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29975.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 59.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 822733, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 38.1, "opportunity_score": 27.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.7, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 823056, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "skill_score": 4.6, "opportunity_score": 57.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.613, "prob_5_plus": 0.4409, "prob_6_plus": 0.2922, "prob_7_plus": 0.1798, "prob_8_plus": 0.1034, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 52.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 39.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.6, "expected_contact_quality": 111.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-21", "game_pk": 822733, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "skill_score": 38.3, "opportunity_score": 42.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "prob_4_plus": 0.5001, "prob_5_plus": 0.3265, "prob_6_plus": 0.1947, "prob_7_plus": 0.1071, "prob_8_plus": 0.0549, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 127.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 34.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.4, "expected_contact_quality": 148.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 32.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 131.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680755, "pitcher_name": "Braydon Fisher", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688642, "pitcher_name": "Zach Agnos", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }