{ "date": "2026-05-28", "generated_at": "2026-05-28T13:35:42.290460", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 10, "skipped_start_count": 2, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 824757, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.5, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.8437, "prob_5_plus": 0.7283, "prob_6_plus": 0.5948, "prob_7_plus": 0.4598, "prob_8_plus": 0.3371, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.042, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andruw Monasterio", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 88.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 86.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.2, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 85.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 824272, "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "prob_4_plus": 0.8234, "prob_5_plus": 0.6994, "prob_6_plus": 0.5602, "prob_7_plus": 0.4237, "prob_8_plus": 0.3034, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.56, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.893, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vaughn Grissom", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Wade Meckler", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Wade Meckler", "matchup_score": 90.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Sebasti\u00e1n Rivero", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 78.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 823378, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 52.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.8016, "prob_5_plus": 0.6692, "prob_6_plus": 0.5252, "prob_7_plus": 0.3882, "prob_8_plus": 0.2713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 822896, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 74.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.7692, "prob_5_plus": 0.6262, "prob_6_plus": 0.4772, "prob_7_plus": 0.3414, "prob_8_plus": 0.2303, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 78.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.8, "expected_contact_quality": 103.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 822896, "pitcher_id": 681293, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 59.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 105.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 824595, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 58.2, "opportunity_score": 68.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brooks Lee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Kreidler", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Tristan Gray", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Orlando Arcia", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 824834, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 12.3, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.001, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 823378, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 12.5, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "prob_4_plus": 0.5725, "prob_5_plus": 0.3982, "prob_6_plus": 0.2543, "prob_7_plus": 0.1504, "prob_8_plus": 0.0831, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.0, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.6, "expected_contact_quality": 108.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 824834, "pitcher_id": 571578, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 26.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "temperature_f": 59.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.001, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 147.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 33.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 32.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.3, "expected_contact_quality": 110.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "game_pk": 824595, "pitcher_id": 680573, "pitcher_name": "Simeon Woods Richardson", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 39.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17855.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Sam Antonacci", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Miguel Vargas", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tristan Peters", "matchup_score": 83.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "matchup_score": 46.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Rikuu Nishida", "matchup_score": 46.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }