{ "date": "2026-06-03", "generated_at": "2026-06-03T08:03:30.095463", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823456, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 88.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 8.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.962, "prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.056, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 67.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 61.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823130, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 78.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 76.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.4, "expected_contact_quality": 107.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 104.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823051, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.7859, "prob_5_plus": 0.6482, "prob_6_plus": 0.5015, "prob_7_plus": 0.3649, "prob_8_plus": 0.2506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 83.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824188, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 85.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 81.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823540, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.073, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.0, "expected_contact_quality": 143.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823130, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.761, "prob_5_plus": 0.6155, "prob_6_plus": 0.4655, "prob_7_plus": 0.3304, "prob_8_plus": 0.2209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 78.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823780, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.5 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.4, "expected_contact_quality": 112.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824188, "pitcher_id": 681293, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.8, "expected_contact_quality": 97.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.4, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823701, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824917, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 57.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 111.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824671, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 12.5, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.018, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 72.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 822727, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "prob_7_plus": 0.197, "prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.9, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 825077, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.6253, "prob_5_plus": 0.4543, "prob_6_plus": 0.3045, "prob_7_plus": 0.1895, "prob_8_plus": 0.1104, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 51.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 133.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824671, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.5758, "prob_5_plus": 0.4016, "prob_6_plus": 0.2573, "prob_7_plus": 0.1527, "prob_8_plus": 0.0846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.018, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.5, "expected_contact_quality": 63.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 42.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824024, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 51.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "prob_4_plus": 0.5758, "prob_5_plus": 0.4016, "prob_6_plus": 0.2573, "prob_7_plus": 0.1527, "prob_8_plus": 0.0846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 52.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824509, "pitcher_id": 663568, "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.062, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 106.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 40.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.5, "expected_contact_quality": 90.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 822973, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.922, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 45.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.3, "expected_contact_quality": 61.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 44.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824917, "pitcher_id": 571578, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "prob_4_plus": 0.5469, "prob_5_plus": 0.3721, "prob_6_plus": 0.232, "prob_7_plus": 0.1338, "prob_8_plus": 0.072, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 34.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 112.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 30.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 145.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 29.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.0, "expected_contact_quality": 87.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 824755, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 12.3, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "prob_4_plus": 0.513, "prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "prob_7_plus": 0.114, "prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 70.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.9, "expected_contact_quality": 89.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823051, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.59, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.47, "prob_5_plus": 0.2984, "prob_6_plus": 0.1727, "prob_7_plus": 0.0921, "prob_8_plus": 0.0457, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 33.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.0, "expected_contact_quality": 106.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823701, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 39.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "prob_4_plus": 0.4681, "prob_5_plus": 0.2967, "prob_6_plus": 0.1713, "prob_7_plus": 0.0912, "prob_8_plus": 0.0451, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.5, "expected_contact_quality": 109.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 38.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "game_pk": 823456, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.435, "prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "prob_6_plus": 0.149, "prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.056, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 42.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.4, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 39.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.8, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 36.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 106.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 660271, "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }