{ "date": "2026-06-04", "generated_at": "2026-06-04T08:03:20.519171", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 12, "skipped_start_count": 5, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 823457, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "prob_4_plus": 0.8716, "prob_5_plus": 0.7695, "prob_6_plus": 0.646, "prob_7_plus": 0.5152, "prob_8_plus": 0.391, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.05, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 96.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.3, "expected_contact_quality": 66.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 92.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 824919, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.8466, "prob_5_plus": 0.7324, "prob_6_plus": 0.5998, "prob_7_plus": 0.465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3421, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 89.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 89.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.8, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 88.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 823542, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "prob_4_plus": 0.7925, "prob_5_plus": 0.657, "prob_6_plus": 0.5113, "prob_7_plus": 0.3745, "prob_8_plus": 0.2591, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.07, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 82.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 80.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 80.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 824672, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 48.0, "opportunity_score": 65.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 70.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 70.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 108.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 823698, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.97, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 98.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 59.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 824672, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 70.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.7, "expected_contact_quality": 103.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 176.7, "expected_contact_quality": 108.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 824753, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.03, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 63.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 104.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 824753, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 40.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.03, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 43.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 122.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 823457, "pitcher_id": 608337, "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "prob_4_plus": 0.5971, "prob_5_plus": 0.424, "prob_6_plus": 0.277, "prob_7_plus": 0.1678, "prob_8_plus": 0.095, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.05, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 89.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 108.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 825076, "pitcher_id": 669194, "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.962, "prob_4_plus": 0.5923, "prob_5_plus": 0.4188, "prob_6_plus": 0.2724, "prob_7_plus": 0.1643, "prob_8_plus": 0.0926, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.5, "expected_contact_quality": 64.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 40.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 39.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.5, "expected_contact_quality": 120.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 823542, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.5607, "prob_5_plus": 0.3861, "prob_6_plus": 0.2439, "prob_7_plus": 0.1426, "prob_8_plus": 0.0778, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.07, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "game_pk": 823779, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 34.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 33.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.6, "expected_contact_quality": 103.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 689441, "pitcher_name": "Coleman Crow", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702193, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Morris", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678906, "pitcher_name": "Kai-Wei Teng", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }