{ "date": "2026-06-09", "generated_at": "2026-06-09T08:03:48.199289", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 822805, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.8716, "prob_5_plus": 0.7695, "prob_6_plus": 0.646, "prob_7_plus": 0.5152, "prob_8_plus": 0.391, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 90.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 83.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.9, "expected_contact_quality": 63.9 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 79.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.9, "expected_contact_quality": 61.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 822805, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.8541, "prob_5_plus": 0.7434, "prob_6_plus": 0.6132, "prob_7_plus": 0.4794, "prob_8_plus": 0.3559, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 96.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 88.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 87.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824830, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.8242, "prob_5_plus": 0.7005, "prob_6_plus": 0.5615, "prob_7_plus": 0.425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3046, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.9, "expected_contact_quality": 93.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823620, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "prob_7_plus": 0.406, "prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.001, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 90.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 89.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823374, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 91.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 82.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Smith", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824105, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "prob_6_plus": 0.418, "prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.056, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.4, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824267, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "prob_4_plus": 0.7217, "prob_5_plus": 0.5661, "prob_6_plus": 0.4134, "prob_7_plus": 0.2823, "prob_8_plus": 0.1813, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.9, "expected_contact_quality": 91.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824830, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.012, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 59.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.9, "expected_contact_quality": 120.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.7, "expected_contact_quality": 145.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824999, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 98.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.0, "expected_contact_quality": 110.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 59.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823290, "pitcher_id": 608337, "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "prob_4_plus": 0.6647, "prob_5_plus": 0.4985, "prob_6_plus": 0.3461, "prob_7_plus": 0.2237, "prob_8_plus": 0.1356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 102.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 113.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824591, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 68.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.5, "expected_contact_quality": 63.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.1, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823858, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.925, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 65.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 30.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.6, "expected_contact_quality": 105.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824347, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 12.5, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "prob_4_plus": 0.6083, "prob_5_plus": 0.4359, "prob_6_plus": 0.2876, "prob_7_plus": 0.1761, "prob_8_plus": 0.1009, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.128, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 67.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824429, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.035, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823858, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.925, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 70.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 70.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 53.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.1, "expected_contact_quality": 128.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823374, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 44.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 105.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824105, "pitcher_id": 663568, "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.056, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 36.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 34.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823620, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.001, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 113.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 128.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 822969, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 99.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824591, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 39.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 39.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 111.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 30.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 148.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 823214, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.909, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "game_pk": 824347, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.42, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.437, "prob_5_plus": 0.2688, "prob_6_plus": 0.1503, "prob_7_plus": 0.0774, "prob_8_plus": 0.037, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.128, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 36.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.6, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 48.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 26.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678906, "pitcher_name": "Kai-Wei Teng", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }