{ "date": "2026-06-14", "generated_at": "2026-06-14T08:06:11.775456", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 26, "skipped_start_count": 4, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823368, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "prob_4_plus": 0.8077, "prob_5_plus": 0.6776, "prob_6_plus": 0.5348, "prob_7_plus": 0.3978, "prob_8_plus": 0.2799, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 96.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 94.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 90.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823615, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.8007, "prob_5_plus": 0.668, "prob_6_plus": 0.5238, "prob_7_plus": 0.3869, "prob_8_plus": 0.27, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "matchup_score": 67.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823777, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 88.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 8.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.7, "expected_contact_quality": 92.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824424, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.7763, "prob_5_plus": 0.6354, "prob_6_plus": 0.4873, "prob_7_plus": 0.3511, "prob_8_plus": 0.2386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823212, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "prob_4_plus": 0.7672, "prob_5_plus": 0.6235, "prob_6_plus": 0.4743, "prob_7_plus": 0.3386, "prob_8_plus": 0.228, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 66.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.2, "expected_contact_quality": 97.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 64.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 64.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823693, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.7492, "prob_5_plus": 0.6004, "prob_6_plus": 0.4494, "prob_7_plus": 0.3152, "prob_8_plus": 0.2082, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 71.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.2, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824751, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.7392, "prob_5_plus": 0.5878, "prob_6_plus": 0.436, "prob_7_plus": 0.3028, "prob_8_plus": 0.198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.116, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 76.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 102.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823777, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 108.7 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824586, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824099, "pitcher_id": 681293, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823615, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 114.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 36.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 120.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 822801, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.6647, "prob_5_plus": 0.4985, "prob_6_plus": 0.3461, "prob_7_plus": 0.2237, "prob_8_plus": 0.1356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.2, "expected_contact_quality": 125.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824994, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "prob_4_plus": 0.6633, "prob_5_plus": 0.4969, "prob_6_plus": 0.3445, "prob_7_plus": 0.2224, "prob_8_plus": 0.1346, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.067, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.8, "expected_contact_quality": 65.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823368, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 106.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 136.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 121.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824823, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.087, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 103.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.5, "expected_contact_quality": 63.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824424, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "prob_7_plus": 0.197, "prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 98.8 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 822801, "pitcher_id": 571578, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 38.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.9, "expected_contact_quality": 143.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824506, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.078, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.7, "expected_contact_quality": 101.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824099, "pitcher_id": 663568, "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.5572, "prob_5_plus": 0.3826, "prob_6_plus": 0.2409, "prob_7_plus": 0.1404, "prob_8_plus": 0.0763, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 42.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824506, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.5503, "prob_5_plus": 0.3756, "prob_6_plus": 0.235, "prob_7_plus": 0.136, "prob_8_plus": 0.0734, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.078, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 48.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 108.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824586, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 39.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.5166, "prob_5_plus": 0.3423, "prob_6_plus": 0.2074, "prob_7_plus": 0.116, "prob_8_plus": 0.0605, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 33.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 126.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 32.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.0, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 822722, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.102, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.9, "expected_contact_quality": 97.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 30.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 30.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.1, "expected_contact_quality": 89.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 822722, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.4448, "prob_5_plus": 0.2757, "prob_6_plus": 0.1555, "prob_7_plus": 0.0807, "prob_8_plus": 0.039, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.102, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 35.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.8, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 26.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 23.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 148.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824823, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.087, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 31.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 26.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 824994, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "prob_4_plus": 0.4152, "prob_5_plus": 0.2498, "prob_6_plus": 0.1365, "prob_7_plus": 0.0686, "prob_8_plus": 0.032, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.067, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.6, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 48.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "game_pk": 823693, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "prob_4_plus": 0.3192, "prob_5_plus": 0.1726, "prob_6_plus": 0.0842, "prob_7_plus": 0.0376, "prob_8_plus": 0.0156, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.4, "expected_contact_quality": 104.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 669020, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Rolison", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 668984, "pitcher_name": "Casey Legumina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 813349, "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }