{ "date": "2026-06-16", "generated_at": "2026-06-15T23:34:05.816343", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823128, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.49, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.843, "prob_5_plus": 0.7273, "prob_6_plus": 0.5936, "prob_7_plus": 0.4584, "prob_8_plus": 0.3359, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.889, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 81.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 74.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 99.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824182, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 61.5, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "prob_4_plus": 0.8372, "prob_5_plus": 0.7189, "prob_6_plus": 0.5835, "prob_7_plus": 0.4478, "prob_8_plus": 0.3259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 78.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 69.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823451, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.29, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.8281, "prob_5_plus": 0.706, "prob_6_plus": 0.5681, "prob_7_plus": 0.4318, "prob_8_plus": 0.3109, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 84.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 80.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824667, "pitcher_id": 665795, "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "prob_4_plus": 0.73, "prob_5_plus": 0.5763, "prob_6_plus": 0.424, "prob_7_plus": 0.2919, "prob_8_plus": 0.189, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 75.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823045, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "prob_6_plus": 0.418, "prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 76.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 76.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824504, "pitcher_id": 673540, "pitcher_name": "Kodai Senga", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 19.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "prob_4_plus": 0.702, "prob_5_plus": 0.5422, "prob_6_plus": 0.3891, "prob_7_plus": 0.2607, "prob_8_plus": 0.1641, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18182.0, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.4, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824912, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.7007, "prob_5_plus": 0.5407, "prob_6_plus": 0.3876, "prob_7_plus": 0.2594, "prob_8_plus": 0.163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.029, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824182, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 89.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 825070, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 66.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 822888, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6798, "prob_5_plus": 0.516, "prob_6_plus": 0.363, "prob_7_plus": 0.2381, "prob_8_plus": 0.1465, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 56.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 110.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.3, "expected_contact_quality": 67.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824504, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 106.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.4, "expected_contact_quality": 110.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 822723, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 78.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.6192, "prob_5_plus": 0.4477, "prob_6_plus": 0.2983, "prob_7_plus": 0.1846, "prob_8_plus": 0.1069, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 43.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 822888, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "prob_4_plus": 0.6145, "prob_5_plus": 0.4426, "prob_6_plus": 0.2937, "prob_7_plus": 0.181, "prob_8_plus": 0.1043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.4, "expected_contact_quality": 101.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 45.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824991, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.125, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.055, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 84.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 70.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823535, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 58.2, "opportunity_score": 71.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 37.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 30.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823939, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823775, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.007, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 38.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 102.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824667, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "prob_4_plus": 0.5001, "prob_5_plus": 0.3265, "prob_6_plus": 0.1947, "prob_7_plus": 0.1071, "prob_8_plus": 0.0549, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 58.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 45.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 43.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 105.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 824912, "pitcher_id": 605288, "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "prob_4_plus": 0.4982, "prob_5_plus": 0.3247, "prob_6_plus": 0.1933, "prob_7_plus": 0.1061, "prob_8_plus": 0.0543, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.029, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 47.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 94.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 36.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 29.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 144.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823128, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "prob_4_plus": 0.4681, "prob_5_plus": 0.2967, "prob_6_plus": 0.1713, "prob_7_plus": 0.0912, "prob_8_plus": 0.0451, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.889, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 30.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 25.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-16", "game_pk": 823045, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "prob_4_plus": 0.4565, "prob_5_plus": 0.2862, "prob_6_plus": 0.1633, "prob_7_plus": 0.0858, "prob_8_plus": 0.042, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.1, "expected_contact_quality": 94.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }