{ "date": "2026-07-18", "generated_at": "2026-07-17T23:35:00.755608", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824008, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.88, "skill_score": 82.9, "opportunity_score": 52.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 60.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.73, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "prob_4_plus": 0.8686, "prob_5_plus": 0.765, "prob_6_plus": 0.6403, "prob_7_plus": 0.5089, "prob_8_plus": 0.3847, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 91.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.61, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.997, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 95.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823441, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 81.6, "opportunity_score": 71.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "prob_4_plus": 0.8234, "prob_5_plus": 0.6994, "prob_6_plus": 0.5602, "prob_7_plus": 0.4237, "prob_8_plus": 0.3034, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 82.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.5, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.4, "expected_contact_quality": 98.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.0, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824899, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 43.7, "opportunity_score": 43.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.7763, "prob_5_plus": 0.6354, "prob_6_plus": 0.4873, "prob_7_plus": 0.3511, "prob_8_plus": 0.2386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.028, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 106.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824414, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 20.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 56.4, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965, "prob_4_plus": 0.7703, "prob_5_plus": 0.6275, "prob_6_plus": 0.4786, "prob_7_plus": 0.3428, "prob_8_plus": 0.2315, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 20.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.109, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.8, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 104.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823116, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 66.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "prob_4_plus": 0.7672, "prob_5_plus": 0.6235, "prob_6_plus": 0.4743, "prob_7_plus": 0.3386, "prob_8_plus": 0.228, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.912, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.9, "expected_contact_quality": 107.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.7, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824169, "pitcher_id": 681293, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 47.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 56.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 53.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823116, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 45.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.912, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 87.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824657, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 28.2, "opportunity_score": 47.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "prob_6_plus": 0.418, "prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 77.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 56.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "matchup_score": 56.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 94.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823523, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 72.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "prob_4_plus": 0.712, "prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.098, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 82.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824657, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 60.3, "opportunity_score": 65.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 57.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.6, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 822790, "pitcher_id": 669456, "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 89.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823441, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 39.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823523, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 31.4, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.928, "prob_4_plus": 0.6798, "prob_5_plus": 0.516, "prob_6_plus": 0.363, "prob_7_plus": 0.2381, "prob_8_plus": 0.1465, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.098, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.2, "expected_contact_quality": 128.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 33.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824979, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.038, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 74.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.5, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.3, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 825059, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 14.4, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.6577, "prob_5_plus": 0.4905, "prob_6_plus": 0.3384, "prob_7_plus": 0.2173, "prob_8_plus": 0.1308, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 66.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 823763, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 32.2, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.937, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 39.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 38.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 109.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824169, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 83.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 40.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824412, "pitcher_id": 671106, "pitcher_name": "Logan Allen", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26532.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.933, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 40.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 110.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 36.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.2, "expected_contact_quality": 126.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824979, "pitcher_id": 641793, "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 35.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 70.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.116, "prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.038, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 65.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 111.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 822790, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "prob_4_plus": 0.5274, "prob_5_plus": 0.3529, "prob_6_plus": 0.216, "prob_7_plus": 0.1222, "prob_8_plus": 0.0645, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 33.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 32.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 122.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 32.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 825059, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 28.5, "opportunity_score": 13.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 62.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 31.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.9, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-07-18", "game_pk": 824088, "pitcher_id": 656288, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 25.1, "opportunity_score": 34.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702566, "pitcher_name": "Owen Murphy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }