{ "date": "2026-07-20", "generated_at": "2026-07-20T23:36:20.089221", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 24, "skipped_start_count": 6, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 822788, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 77.4, "opportunity_score": 70.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "prob_4_plus": 0.8466, "prob_5_plus": 0.7324, "prob_6_plus": 0.5998, "prob_7_plus": 0.465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3421, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 71.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823436, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "skill_score": 62.4, "opportunity_score": 73.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.13, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "prob_4_plus": 0.8153, "prob_5_plus": 0.688, "prob_6_plus": 0.547, "prob_7_plus": 0.4101, "prob_8_plus": 0.291, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.057, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tommy Edman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Eliezer Alfonzo", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dalton Rushing", "matchup_score": 77.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.5, "expected_contact_quality": 109.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Eliezer Alfonzo", "matchup_score": 68.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823762, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 85.9, "opportunity_score": 61.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.957, "prob_4_plus": 0.8059, "prob_5_plus": 0.6752, "prob_6_plus": 0.5321, "prob_7_plus": 0.3951, "prob_8_plus": 0.2774, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.073, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "A.J. Ewing", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 82.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 79.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 79.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 166.3, "expected_contact_quality": 99.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824410, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 56.0, "opportunity_score": 65.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 44.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.8059, "prob_5_plus": 0.6752, "prob_6_plus": 0.5321, "prob_7_plus": 0.3951, "prob_8_plus": 0.2774, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Travis Bazzana", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Chase DeLauter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brayan Rocchio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Rhys Hoskins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 88.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 82.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Patrick Bailey", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823112, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 28.6, "opportunity_score": 76.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Sal Stewart", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 85.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.1, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 79.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dane Myers", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824006, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 60.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.966, "prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "JJ Wetherholt", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 72.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Church", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jimmy Crooks", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823762, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 30.4, "opportunity_score": 60.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.7772, "prob_5_plus": 0.6367, "prob_6_plus": 0.4887, "prob_7_plus": 0.3524, "prob_8_plus": 0.2398, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.073, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Garrett Mitchell", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Garrett Mitchell", "matchup_score": 88.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cooper Pratt", "matchup_score": 77.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 822874, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 74.6, "opportunity_score": 49.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 50.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.074, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Sam Antonacci", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Miguel Vargas", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luisangel Acu\u00f1a", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randal Grichuk", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Drew Romo", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 171.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Tristan Peters", "matchup_score": 95.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 189.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Braden Montgomery", "matchup_score": 74.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824654, "pitcher_id": 656427, "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 49.1, "opportunity_score": 40.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.7459, "prob_5_plus": 0.5963, "prob_6_plus": 0.4449, "prob_7_plus": 0.3111, "prob_8_plus": 0.2048, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.085, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 104.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Ram\u00edrez", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824410, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.7229, "prob_5_plus": 0.5676, "prob_6_plus": 0.4149, "prob_7_plus": 0.2837, "prob_8_plus": 0.1824, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Alex Jackson", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Kreidler", "matchup_score": 91.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Jackson", "matchup_score": 88.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 69.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.9, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824167, "pitcher_id": 669854, "pitcher_name": "Ronel Blanco", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 47.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16736.0, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Liam Hicks", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Griffin Conine", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Griffin Conine", "matchup_score": 66.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leo Jim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823522, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 31.4, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.953, "prob_4_plus": 0.6969, "prob_5_plus": 0.5361, "prob_6_plus": 0.383, "prob_7_plus": 0.2553, "prob_8_plus": 0.1599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Gonzales", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Esmerlyn Valdez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Rafael Flores Jr.", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.2, "expected_contact_quality": 135.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Gonzalez", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 49.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 103.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823436, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 62.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.6956, "prob_5_plus": 0.5346, "prob_6_plus": 0.3814, "prob_7_plus": 0.254, "prob_8_plus": 0.1588, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.057, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 77.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Justin Crawford", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 93.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824898, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.933, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ty France", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Rodolfo Dur\u00e1n", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ty France", "matchup_score": 44.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 40.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824736, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 23.5, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 18.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.083, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Anthony Seigler", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tsung-Che Cheng", "matchup_score": 71.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "matchup_score": 71.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Wong", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824087, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 83.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 7.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Eldridge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Bryce Eldridge", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 103.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Susac", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.7, "expected_contact_quality": 77.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.1, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824654, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 28.8, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.085, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kevin McGonigle", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "James Outman", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 102.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Hao-Yu Lee", "matchup_score": 52.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 823112, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 17.6, "opportunity_score": 53.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Weston Wilson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colt Emerson", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Cole Young", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.0, "expected_contact_quality": 74.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Weston Wilson", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 96.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824898, "pitcher_id": 676664, "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 42.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "prob_4_plus": 0.5363, "prob_5_plus": 0.3616, "prob_6_plus": 0.2233, "prob_7_plus": 0.1274, "prob_8_plus": 0.0678, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eli White", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jim Jarvis", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.1, "expected_contact_quality": 101.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Mauricio Dub\u00f3n", "matchup_score": 36.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 65.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 825058, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjustment_delta": -0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.916, "prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.43, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tim Tawa", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ildemaro Vargas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Locklear", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 34.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 59.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ildemaro Vargas", "matchup_score": 34.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824328, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 34.0, "opportunity_score": 42.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "prob_4_plus": 0.5292, "prob_5_plus": 0.3546, "prob_6_plus": 0.2175, "prob_7_plus": 0.1232, "prob_8_plus": 0.0651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.127, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Curtis Mead", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 44.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Curtis Mead", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 822874, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 43.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "prob_4_plus": 0.4776, "prob_5_plus": 0.3054, "prob_6_plus": 0.1781, "prob_7_plus": 0.0957, "prob_8_plus": 0.0479, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.074, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Higashioka", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alejandro Osuna", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justin Foscue", "matchup_score": 74.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Elias D\u00edaz", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Cam Cauley", "matchup_score": 42.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 822788, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.4507, "prob_5_plus": 0.2809, "prob_6_plus": 0.1594, "prob_7_plus": 0.0833, "prob_8_plus": 0.0404, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.01, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ernie Clement", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-07-20", "game_pk": 824167, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 50.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "prob_7_plus": 0.064, "prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Allen", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Taylor Trammell", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Cam Smith", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Allen", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686790, "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683352, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }