{ "date": "2026-07-24", "generated_at": "2026-07-24T23:45:56.148181", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 824248, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "skill_score": 89.3, "opportunity_score": 52.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.8473, "prob_5_plus": 0.7334, "prob_6_plus": 0.601, "prob_7_plus": 0.4664, "prob_8_plus": 0.3434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 68.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 82.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823434, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.44, "skill_score": 81.7, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 26.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "prob_4_plus": 0.8394, "prob_5_plus": 0.7221, "prob_6_plus": 0.5873, "prob_7_plus": 0.4518, "prob_8_plus": 0.3296, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.0, "expected_contact_quality": 135.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 822872, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 39.1, "opportunity_score": 45.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.8119, "prob_5_plus": 0.6834, "prob_6_plus": 0.5416, "prob_7_plus": 0.4047, "prob_8_plus": 0.286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.4, "expected_contact_quality": 116.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823196, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 73.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.919, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 76.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823434, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 48.0, "opportunity_score": 52.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 80.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823680, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 18.0, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 36.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "prob_5_plus": 0.572, "prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 75.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 74.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.9, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 57.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 102.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823352, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 23.6, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 72.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823601, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 14.3, "opportunity_score": 53.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.6969, "prob_5_plus": 0.5361, "prob_6_plus": 0.383, "prob_7_plus": 0.2553, "prob_8_plus": 0.1599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 107.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 99.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 824573, "pitcher_id": 681293, "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 21.1, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "prob_4_plus": 0.693, "prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 64.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 822952, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 37.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 73.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 824812, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 19.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 48.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 824812, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 50.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.984, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.0, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.5, "expected_contact_quality": 120.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823680, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 11.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "prob_4_plus": 0.6577, "prob_5_plus": 0.4905, "prob_6_plus": 0.3384, "prob_7_plus": 0.2173, "prob_8_plus": 0.1308, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 84.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.7, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823031, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 14.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 57.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.9, "expected_contact_quality": 102.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823843, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 2.3, "opportunity_score": 15.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "prob_5_plus": 0.446, "prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "prob_8_plus": 0.106, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.8, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 822872, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 53.5, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.049, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 822707, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "prob_4_plus": 0.5971, "prob_5_plus": 0.424, "prob_6_plus": 0.277, "prob_7_plus": 0.1678, "prob_8_plus": 0.095, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.017, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.3, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 51.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 824573, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 40.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965, "prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "prob_8_plus": 0.087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.052, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823843, "pitcher_id": 608566, "pitcher_name": "Germ\u00e1n M\u00e1rquez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.391, "prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "prob_8_plus": 0.027, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11611.0, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 31.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.2, "expected_contact_quality": 97.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Liam Hicks", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 50.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 49.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "game_pk": 823759, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.15, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.3829, "prob_5_plus": 0.2228, "prob_6_plus": 0.1174, "prob_7_plus": 0.0568, "prob_8_plus": 0.0255, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 62.8, "expected_contact_quality": 79.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Sal Frelick", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 47.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694360, "pitcher_name": "Beck Way", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687223, "pitcher_name": "Carson Palmquist", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663556, "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702056, "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }