{ "date": "2026-07-25", "generated_at": "2026-07-25T23:45:04.389094", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824734, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 75.7, "opportunity_score": 68.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.8466, "prob_5_plus": 0.7324, "prob_6_plus": 0.5998, "prob_7_plus": 0.465, "prob_8_plus": 0.3421, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.036, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 88.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.4, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 78.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 74.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823027, "pitcher_id": 668881, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.16, "skill_score": 71.6, "opportunity_score": 62.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.16, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "prob_4_plus": 0.8178, "prob_5_plus": 0.6915, "prob_6_plus": 0.551, "prob_7_plus": 0.4142, "prob_8_plus": 0.2947, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.94, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 93.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 90.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 82.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.3, "expected_contact_quality": 61.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824571, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "skill_score": 22.3, "opportunity_score": 44.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "prob_4_plus": 0.8102, "prob_5_plus": 0.6811, "prob_6_plus": 0.5389, "prob_7_plus": 0.4019, "prob_8_plus": 0.2836, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 76.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 90.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823355, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "skill_score": 41.3, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.8016, "prob_5_plus": 0.6692, "prob_6_plus": 0.5252, "prob_7_plus": 0.3882, "prob_8_plus": 0.2713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 86.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823197, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 18.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 66.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 61.2, "wind_speed_mph": 18.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.937, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 70.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 822869, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "skill_score": 74.7, "opportunity_score": 60.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.7782, "prob_5_plus": 0.638, "prob_6_plus": 0.4901, "prob_7_plus": 0.3538, "prob_8_plus": 0.241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.099, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 56.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.0, "expected_contact_quality": 142.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 56.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 116.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823600, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 29.2, "opportunity_score": 81.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 7.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.7703, "prob_5_plus": 0.6275, "prob_6_plus": 0.4786, "prob_7_plus": 0.3428, "prob_8_plus": 0.2315, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 87.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 75.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 822869, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 22.4, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "prob_4_plus": 0.7181, "prob_5_plus": 0.5617, "prob_6_plus": 0.4089, "prob_7_plus": 0.2782, "prob_8_plus": 0.178, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.099, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 81.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "matchup_score": 75.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.4, "expected_contact_quality": 96.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824734, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 39.1, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.036, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.9, "expected_contact_quality": 99.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823355, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 42.0, "opportunity_score": 55.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.9, "expected_contact_quality": 97.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.0, "expected_contact_quality": 91.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824811, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 29.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 39.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 148.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 822948, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 13.7, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823841, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 66.1, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.023, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 77.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.8, "expected_contact_quality": 62.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 76.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823435, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 42.5, "opportunity_score": 30.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 47.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 40.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 113.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824244, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.9, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.926, "prob_4_plus": 0.6647, "prob_5_plus": 0.4985, "prob_6_plus": 0.3461, "prob_7_plus": 0.2237, "prob_8_plus": 0.1356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824244, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 71.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824571, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 52.7, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.5658, "prob_5_plus": 0.3913, "prob_6_plus": 0.2483, "prob_7_plus": 0.1459, "prob_8_plus": 0.0801, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.7, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 38.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 822948, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.5274, "prob_5_plus": 0.3529, "prob_6_plus": 0.216, "prob_7_plus": 0.1222, "prob_8_plus": 0.0645, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 65.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.5, "expected_contact_quality": 97.0 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 54.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823758, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.72, "skill_score": 19.9, "opportunity_score": 31.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 84.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.4945, "prob_5_plus": 0.3212, "prob_6_plus": 0.1905, "prob_7_plus": 0.1042, "prob_8_plus": 0.0531, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.1, "expected_contact_quality": 107.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 37.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.2, "expected_contact_quality": 102.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 824811, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "prob_4_plus": 0.4908, "prob_5_plus": 0.3177, "prob_6_plus": 0.1877, "prob_7_plus": 0.1023, "prob_8_plus": 0.0519, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 18.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.015, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 33.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 28.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.5, "expected_contact_quality": 120.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 25.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823027, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "prob_4_plus": 0.4757, "prob_5_plus": 0.3037, "prob_6_plus": 0.1767, "prob_7_plus": 0.0948, "prob_8_plus": 0.0473, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.94, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 94.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 81.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "game_pk": 823841, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.14, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "prob_4_plus": 0.3809, "prob_5_plus": 0.2211, "prob_6_plus": 0.1163, "prob_7_plus": 0.0561, "prob_8_plus": 0.0251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.023, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 40.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 32.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.9, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Liam Hicks", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 49.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683352, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696270, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641835, "pitcher_name": "Tim Mayza", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696070, "pitcher_name": "Kendry Rojas", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669620, "pitcher_name": "Brady Basso", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }