{ "date": "2026-07-26", "generated_at": "2026-07-26T23:45:56.829783", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823755, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.8335, "prob_5_plus": 0.7136, "prob_6_plus": 0.5771, "prob_7_plus": 0.4412, "prob_8_plus": 0.3196, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.071, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 169.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823433, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "skill_score": 62.9, "opportunity_score": 67.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "prob_4_plus": 0.825, "prob_5_plus": 0.7016, "prob_6_plus": 0.5629, "prob_7_plus": 0.4264, "prob_8_plus": 0.3059, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 78.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 67.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 130.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 822870, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 59.3, "opportunity_score": 72.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 26.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823599, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.9, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 67.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 822870, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 43.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "prob_6_plus": 0.493, "prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 111.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 106.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 824730, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 73.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 102.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823194, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 19.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 37.5, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "prob_4_plus": 0.7535, "prob_5_plus": 0.606, "prob_6_plus": 0.4553, "prob_7_plus": 0.3207, "prob_8_plus": 0.2128, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 19.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.8, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 61.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 824246, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 34.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.009, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 66.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 824810, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 21.6, "opportunity_score": 65.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 85.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 99.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.5, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 49.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 118.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823599, "pitcher_id": 686218, "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "skill_score": 43.1, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "prob_4_plus": 0.6917, "prob_5_plus": 0.53, "prob_6_plus": 0.3768, "prob_7_plus": 0.25, "prob_8_plus": 0.1557, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.7, "expected_contact_quality": 117.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.7, "expected_contact_quality": 117.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 64.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823433, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 45.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "prob_4_plus": 0.6917, "prob_5_plus": 0.53, "prob_6_plus": 0.3768, "prob_7_plus": 0.25, "prob_8_plus": 0.1557, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.0, "expected_contact_quality": 120.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 824572, "pitcher_id": 669854, "pitcher_name": "Ronel Blanco", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 76.2, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.6838, "prob_5_plus": 0.5207, "prob_6_plus": 0.3676, "prob_7_plus": 0.242, "prob_8_plus": 0.1496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16736.0, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lenyn Sosa", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 824730, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "prob_4_plus": 0.6647, "prob_5_plus": 0.4985, "prob_6_plus": 0.3461, "prob_7_plus": 0.2237, "prob_8_plus": 0.1356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823354, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 29.9, "opportunity_score": 43.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.956, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.2, "expected_contact_quality": 101.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 40.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 109.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823678, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 99.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 99.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Martin", "matchup_score": 39.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 822950, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 94.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 15.4, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "prob_7_plus": 0.155, "prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 94.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.032, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 169.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 72.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 67.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823028, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 100.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 50.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "prob_4_plus": 0.5416, "prob_5_plus": 0.3669, "prob_6_plus": 0.2276, "prob_7_plus": 0.1306, "prob_8_plus": 0.0699, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 100.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.058, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 79.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 824572, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 25.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "prob_4_plus": 0.5111, "prob_5_plus": 0.337, "prob_6_plus": 0.2031, "prob_7_plus": 0.113, "prob_8_plus": 0.0586, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.3, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823755, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.4776, "prob_5_plus": 0.3054, "prob_6_plus": 0.1781, "prob_7_plus": 0.0957, "prob_8_plus": 0.0479, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.071, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.2, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Sal Frelick", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 58.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823840, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.45, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "prob_4_plus": 0.4429, "prob_5_plus": 0.274, "prob_6_plus": 0.1542, "prob_7_plus": 0.0799, "prob_8_plus": 0.0385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 55.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 823840, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 19.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "prob_4_plus": 0.435, "prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "prob_6_plus": 0.149, "prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 88.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 33.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.7, "expected_contact_quality": 117.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "game_pk": 822706, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "prob_4_plus": 0.3951, "prob_5_plus": 0.2328, "prob_6_plus": 0.1244, "prob_7_plus": 0.0611, "prob_8_plus": 0.0278, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.15, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.058, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 46.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 25.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 20.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.2, "expected_contact_quality": 105.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 684442, "pitcher_name": "Kohl Drake", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 679883, "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687931, "pitcher_name": "Carson Whisenhunt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }