{ "date": "2026-07-28", "generated_at": "2026-07-28T23:49:36.687325", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 14, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823598, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "skill_score": 73.2, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.8335, "prob_5_plus": 0.7136, "prob_6_plus": 0.5771, "prob_7_plus": 0.4412, "prob_8_plus": 0.3196, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 90.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 88.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.1, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 87.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823275, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 31.9, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.62, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "prob_4_plus": 0.7763, "prob_5_plus": 0.6354, "prob_6_plus": 0.4873, "prob_7_plus": 0.3511, "prob_8_plus": 0.2386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 87.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 87.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 84.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 824489, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "skill_score": 75.1, "opportunity_score": 58.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 27.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.064, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 70.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.3, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 59.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823838, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 50.0, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.5, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 113.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823676, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "skill_score": 49.3, "opportunity_score": 65.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 65.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823838, "pitcher_id": 645261, "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 87.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 4.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.7241, "prob_5_plus": 0.5691, "prob_6_plus": 0.4165, "prob_7_plus": 0.285, "prob_8_plus": 0.1835, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.0, "expected_contact_quality": 104.8 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823923, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 55.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 45.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 69.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.8, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 108.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.4, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823676, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 98.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 59.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 822703, "pitcher_id": 669456, "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 39.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.6577, "prob_5_plus": 0.4905, "prob_6_plus": 0.3384, "prob_7_plus": 0.2173, "prob_8_plus": 0.1308, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 824243, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 42.6, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 54.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.912, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.3, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823193, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 61.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.962, "prob_4_plus": 0.6207, "prob_5_plus": 0.4493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2999, "prob_7_plus": 0.1858, "prob_8_plus": 0.1078, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.917, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 41.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.7, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 37.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.3, "expected_contact_quality": 102.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823350, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.6145, "prob_5_plus": 0.4426, "prob_6_plus": 0.2937, "prob_7_plus": 0.181, "prob_8_plus": 0.1043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 105.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 109.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823026, "pitcher_id": 607067, "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 12.8, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "prob_4_plus": 0.5758, "prob_5_plus": 0.4016, "prob_6_plus": 0.2573, "prob_7_plus": 0.1527, "prob_8_plus": 0.0846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.937, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 824490, "pitcher_id": 677944, "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 44.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "prob_4_plus": 0.5758, "prob_5_plus": 0.4016, "prob_6_plus": 0.2573, "prob_7_plus": 0.1527, "prob_8_plus": 0.0846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.093, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.1, "expected_contact_quality": 84.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 107.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.8, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823275, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.5274, "prob_5_plus": 0.3529, "prob_6_plus": 0.216, "prob_7_plus": 0.1222, "prob_8_plus": 0.0645, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 44.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 71.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 822703, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 50.6, "opportunity_score": 40.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.4814, "prob_5_plus": 0.3089, "prob_6_plus": 0.1808, "prob_7_plus": 0.0976, "prob_8_plus": 0.049, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.1, "expected_contact_quality": 114.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 36.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 823026, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "prob_4_plus": 0.391, "prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "prob_8_plus": 0.027, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.937, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 46.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 33.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "game_pk": 822949, "pitcher_id": 615698, "pitcher_name": "Cal Quantrill", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.07, "skill_score": 8.4, "opportunity_score": 15.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.3666, "prob_5_plus": 0.2095, "prob_6_plus": 0.1083, "prob_7_plus": 0.0514, "prob_8_plus": 0.0226, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.027, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 35.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "matchup_score": 28.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.6, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 657571, "pitcher_name": "Caleb Ferguson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687562, "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }