{ "date": "2026-08-04", "generated_at": "2026-08-05T00:25:24.435222", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824645, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 86.3, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.8372, "prob_5_plus": 0.7189, "prob_6_plus": 0.5835, "prob_7_plus": 0.4478, "prob_8_plus": 0.3259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 93.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "matchup_score": 91.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 823432, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 67.0, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.8242, "prob_5_plus": 0.7005, "prob_6_plus": 0.5615, "prob_7_plus": 0.425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3046, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.054, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 77.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 102.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.8, "expected_contact_quality": 102.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824321, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "prob_4_plus": 0.8145, "prob_5_plus": 0.6869, "prob_6_plus": 0.5456, "prob_7_plus": 0.4088, "prob_8_plus": 0.2897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 92.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 90.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 151.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 89.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 822865, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 90.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 42.4, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 90.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 64.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824084, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 34.6, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.7792, "prob_5_plus": 0.6393, "prob_6_plus": 0.4916, "prob_7_plus": 0.3552, "prob_8_plus": 0.2422, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.977, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 77.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 71.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824403, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 64.4, "opportunity_score": 33.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "prob_4_plus": 0.7217, "prob_5_plus": 0.5661, "prob_6_plus": 0.4134, "prob_7_plus": 0.2823, "prob_8_plus": 0.1813, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.7, "expected_contact_quality": 128.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.7, "expected_contact_quality": 147.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824888, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 28.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.6, "expected_contact_quality": 116.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 823517, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.07, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 116.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824805, "pitcher_id": 700249, "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 13.4, "opportunity_score": 27.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.693, "prob_5_plus": 0.5315, "prob_6_plus": 0.3784, "prob_7_plus": 0.2513, "prob_8_plus": 0.1567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.014, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 57.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824403, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "prob_4_plus": 0.673, "prob_5_plus": 0.5081, "prob_6_plus": 0.3553, "prob_7_plus": 0.2315, "prob_8_plus": 0.1415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 86.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 166.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 82.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.5, "expected_contact_quality": 65.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 80.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824484, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 61.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "prob_4_plus": 0.6716, "prob_5_plus": 0.5065, "prob_6_plus": 0.3538, "prob_7_plus": 0.2302, "prob_8_plus": 0.1405, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.065, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 85.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.7, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 79.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.4, "expected_contact_quality": 112.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824484, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "skill_score": 30.7, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.135, "prob_4_plus": 0.6563, "prob_5_plus": 0.4889, "prob_6_plus": 0.3368, "prob_7_plus": 0.216, "prob_8_plus": 0.1298, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.065, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 825054, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 44.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824161, "pitcher_id": 669713, "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 17.5, "opportunity_score": 44.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "prob_6_plus": 0.283, "prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 125.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 42.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824888, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 45.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 40.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 127.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 823108, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 37.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "prob_4_plus": 0.5725, "prob_5_plus": 0.3982, "prob_6_plus": 0.2543, "prob_7_plus": 0.1504, "prob_8_plus": 0.0831, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.908, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 36.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 32.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 27.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 108.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824731, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.5503, "prob_5_plus": 0.3756, "prob_6_plus": 0.235, "prob_7_plus": 0.136, "prob_8_plus": 0.0734, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.068, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 47.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Caleb Durbin", "matchup_score": 32.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 31.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 117.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 824645, "pitcher_id": 665871, "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 22.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "prob_5_plus": 0.316, "prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 31.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 31.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 133.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 823517, "pitcher_id": 690928, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Dobbins", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 24.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "prob_4_plus": 0.435, "prob_5_plus": 0.2671, "prob_6_plus": 0.149, "prob_7_plus": 0.0765, "prob_8_plus": 0.0365, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4095.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.07, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 34.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 28.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "game_pk": 825054, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 19.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.938, "prob_4_plus": 0.3337, "prob_5_plus": 0.1836, "prob_6_plus": 0.0912, "prob_7_plus": 0.0415, "prob_8_plus": 0.0175, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 11.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 41.8, "expected_contact_quality": 68.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 17.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 14.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.7, "expected_contact_quality": 102.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687223, "pitcher_name": "Carson Palmquist", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694918, "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702056, "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687312, "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }