{ "date": "2026-08-05", "generated_at": "2026-08-05T08:06:52.924840", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824158, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "skill_score": 33.0, "opportunity_score": 47.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "prob_4_plus": 0.8226, "prob_5_plus": 0.6983, "prob_6_plus": 0.5589, "prob_7_plus": 0.4223, "prob_8_plus": 0.3021, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 91.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 823753, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 56.2, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "prob_4_plus": 0.7763, "prob_5_plus": 0.6354, "prob_6_plus": 0.4873, "prob_7_plus": 0.3511, "prob_8_plus": 0.2386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 86.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 823106, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "skill_score": 31.7, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "prob_4_plus": 0.747, "prob_5_plus": 0.5977, "prob_6_plus": 0.4464, "prob_7_plus": 0.3124, "prob_8_plus": 0.2059, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.94, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 70.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "matchup_score": 70.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824728, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "prob_4_plus": 0.7217, "prob_5_plus": 0.5661, "prob_6_plus": 0.4134, "prob_7_plus": 0.2823, "prob_8_plus": 0.1813, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.072, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 82.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 76.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 61.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 823516, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 26.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.7217, "prob_5_plus": 0.5661, "prob_6_plus": 0.4134, "prob_7_plus": 0.2823, "prob_8_plus": 0.1813, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 91.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824402, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 14.8, "opportunity_score": 53.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "prob_4_plus": 0.7181, "prob_5_plus": 0.5617, "prob_6_plus": 0.4089, "prob_7_plus": 0.2782, "prob_8_plus": 0.178, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.993, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.1, "expected_contact_quality": 107.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 61.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.5, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824646, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 39.0, "opportunity_score": 52.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.962, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.1, "expected_contact_quality": 123.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824889, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 33.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.975, "prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.986, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 107.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 43.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 121.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824806, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 32.6, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "prob_4_plus": 0.7058, "prob_5_plus": 0.5468, "prob_6_plus": 0.3937, "prob_7_plus": 0.2647, "prob_8_plus": 0.1672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.998, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 823753, "pitcher_id": 690986, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 46.6, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "prob_4_plus": 0.702, "prob_5_plus": 0.5422, "prob_6_plus": 0.3891, "prob_7_plus": 0.2607, "prob_8_plus": 0.1641, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.5, "expected_contact_quality": 104.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.8, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 121.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824482, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 95.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.134, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.065, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 75.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 72.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824082, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 61.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.897, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.7, "expected_contact_quality": 97.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.4, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 44.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.0, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824889, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "prob_7_plus": 0.197, "prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.986, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 73.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.2, "expected_contact_quality": 115.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 63.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824082, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 30.7, "opportunity_score": 42.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 59.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "prob_4_plus": 0.6283, "prob_5_plus": 0.4577, "prob_6_plus": 0.3075, "prob_7_plus": 0.192, "prob_8_plus": 0.1122, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.897, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 825052, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 38.5, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.921, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 39.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 36.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.3, "expected_contact_quality": 67.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824158, "pitcher_id": 592791, "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 25.6, "opportunity_score": 38.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.5792, "prob_5_plus": 0.4051, "prob_6_plus": 0.2603, "prob_7_plus": 0.155, "prob_8_plus": 0.0862, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 42.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.4, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 823429, "pitcher_id": 663623, "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 27.3, "opportunity_score": 30.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "prob_4_plus": 0.5641, "prob_5_plus": 0.3895, "prob_6_plus": 0.2468, "prob_7_plus": 0.1448, "prob_8_plus": 0.0793, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.041, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 93.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 129.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824646, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 53.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.5381, "prob_5_plus": 0.3634, "prob_6_plus": 0.2247, "prob_7_plus": 0.1285, "prob_8_plus": 0.0685, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.973, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 47.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 40.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.5, "expected_contact_quality": 96.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 40.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824728, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.93, "skill_score": 65.1, "opportunity_score": 64.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 30.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "prob_4_plus": 0.5328, "prob_5_plus": 0.3581, "prob_6_plus": 0.2204, "prob_7_plus": 0.1253, "prob_8_plus": 0.0665, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.072, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.1, "expected_contact_quality": 91.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 32.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 125.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824322, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "prob_4_plus": 0.5256, "prob_5_plus": 0.3511, "prob_6_plus": 0.2146, "prob_7_plus": 0.1212, "prob_8_plus": 0.0638, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.099, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 59.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 66.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 824322, "pitcher_id": 608372, "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.38, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 40.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "prob_4_plus": 0.4291, "prob_5_plus": 0.2619, "prob_6_plus": 0.1452, "prob_7_plus": 0.0741, "prob_8_plus": 0.0351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.099, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 51.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 35.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "matchup_score": 32.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 43.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "game_pk": 823516, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 10.4, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "prob_4_plus": 0.387, "prob_5_plus": 0.2261, "prob_6_plus": 0.1197, "prob_7_plus": 0.0582, "prob_8_plus": 0.0263, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 49.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 36.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 149.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 27.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 674003, "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687931, "pitcher_name": "Carson Whisenhunt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683352, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 623454, "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }