{ "date": "2026-08-07", "generated_at": "2026-08-08T00:29:37.262693", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 17, "skipped_start_count": 13, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823428, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.9, "skill_score": 87.3, "opportunity_score": 28.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.8698, "prob_5_plus": 0.7668, "prob_6_plus": 0.6426, "prob_7_plus": 0.5114, "prob_8_plus": 0.3872, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 96.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 88.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 87.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823103, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "skill_score": 51.4, "opportunity_score": 68.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 25.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.25, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "prob_4_plus": 0.825, "prob_5_plus": 0.7016, "prob_6_plus": 0.5629, "prob_7_plus": 0.4264, "prob_8_plus": 0.3059, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.928, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 92.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 71.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 822863, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 62.6, "opportunity_score": 62.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "prob_4_plus": 0.7743, "prob_5_plus": 0.6328, "prob_6_plus": 0.4844, "prob_7_plus": 0.3483, "prob_8_plus": 0.2363, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.088, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823515, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "skill_score": 41.9, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.7723, "prob_5_plus": 0.6302, "prob_6_plus": 0.4815, "prob_7_plus": 0.3455, "prob_8_plus": 0.2339, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.077, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 72.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823428, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 56.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 77.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.4, "expected_contact_quality": 137.8 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 824081, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 34.0, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "prob_8_plus": 0.214, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 67.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823266, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 17.6, "opportunity_score": 56.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "prob_4_plus": 0.7459, "prob_5_plus": 0.5963, "prob_6_plus": 0.4449, "prob_7_plus": 0.3111, "prob_8_plus": 0.2048, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 84.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823266, "pitcher_id": 669854, "pitcher_name": "Ronel Blanco", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 42.9, "opportunity_score": 45.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 65.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16736.0, "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 65.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 822863, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.6798, "prob_5_plus": 0.516, "prob_6_plus": 0.363, "prob_7_plus": 0.2381, "prob_8_plus": 0.1465, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.088, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 82.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 58.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 99.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823750, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.6633, "prob_5_plus": 0.4969, "prob_6_plus": 0.3445, "prob_7_plus": 0.2224, "prob_8_plus": 0.1346, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 54.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 97.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 50.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 825051, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 48.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 61.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.2, "expected_contact_quality": 121.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823515, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.589, "prob_5_plus": 0.4154, "prob_6_plus": 0.2694, "prob_7_plus": 0.1619, "prob_8_plus": 0.091, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.077, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 99.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823103, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "prob_4_plus": 0.5675, "prob_5_plus": 0.393, "prob_6_plus": 0.2498, "prob_7_plus": 0.147, "prob_8_plus": 0.0808, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.928, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.9, "expected_contact_quality": 115.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 98.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823024, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 33.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "prob_4_plus": 0.5111, "prob_5_plus": 0.337, "prob_6_plus": 0.2031, "prob_7_plus": 0.113, "prob_8_plus": 0.0586, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 822699, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 24.3, "opportunity_score": 45.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 53.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823191, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.34, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 45.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "prob_4_plus": 0.4212, "prob_5_plus": 0.255, "prob_6_plus": 0.1402, "prob_7_plus": 0.0709, "prob_8_plus": 0.0333, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.957, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 44.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 43.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.3, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "game_pk": 823349, "pitcher_id": 669387, "pitcher_name": "Carmen Mlodzinski", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "adjustment_delta": -0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.903, "prob_4_plus": 0.3951, "prob_5_plus": 0.2328, "prob_6_plus": 0.1244, "prob_7_plus": 0.0611, "prob_8_plus": 0.0278, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4653.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 25.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.8, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 24.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 123.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "matchup_score": 24.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695534, "pitcher_name": "Chase Petty", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691946, "pitcher_name": "George Klassen", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702273, "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 664141, "pitcher_name": "JT Brubaker", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }