{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-09", "generated_at": "2026-08-10T00:04:24.487043", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 22, "skipped_start_count": 8, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823751, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 56.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8059, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6752, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5321, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3951, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2774, "prob_4_plus": 0.8059, "prob_5_plus": 0.6752, "prob_6_plus": 0.5321, "prob_7_plus": 0.3951, "prob_8_plus": 0.2774, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brooks Lee", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Kreidler", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 175.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alan Roden", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823513, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 61.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 83.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.2, "expected_contact_quality": 75.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 76.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823425, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 18.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "adjustment_delta": -0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.136, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brett Bateman", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alejandro Kirk", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ernie Clement", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Bateman", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.5, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "matchup_score": 69.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.3, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823190, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 74.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7859, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6482, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5015, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3649, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2506, "prob_4_plus": 0.7859, "prob_5_plus": 0.6482, "prob_6_plus": 0.5015, "prob_7_plus": 0.3649, "prob_8_plus": 0.2506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 87.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 63.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 824564, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 60.2, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.262, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.028, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Miguel Vargas", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Randal Grichuk", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Braden Montgomery", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 70.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Munetaka Murakami", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Sam Antonacci", "matchup_score": 65.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823345, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ronny Simon", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Gonzales", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Esmerlyn Valdez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Henry Davis", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 78.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Flores Jr.", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 198.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823513, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan McMahon", "matchup_score": 63.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wells", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "George Lombard Jr.", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 824078, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 99.9, "wind_speed_mph": 15.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 99.9, "wind_speed_mph": 15.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.098, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Loftin", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jac Caglianone", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jac Caglianone", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Maile", "matchup_score": 59.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 824724, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 36.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.138, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Sogard", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andruw Monasterio", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eli White", "matchup_score": 76.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.1, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Sogard", "matchup_score": 72.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823835, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 6.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wade Meckler", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mois\u00e9s Ballesteros", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Wade Meckler", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Siri", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 176.7, "expected_contact_quality": 95.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 63.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823425, "pitcher_id": 669456, "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 1.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.98, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.136, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 65.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "matchup_score": 47.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 825050, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 26.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.466, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "prob_4_plus": 0.6358, "prob_5_plus": 0.466, "prob_6_plus": 0.3152, "prob_7_plus": 0.1982, "prob_8_plus": 0.1167, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 115.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.7, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 822862, "pitcher_id": 700249, "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 24.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6253, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4543, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3045, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1895, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1104, "prob_4_plus": 0.6253, "prob_5_plus": 0.4543, "prob_6_plus": 0.3045, "prob_7_plus": 0.1895, "prob_8_plus": 0.1104, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.118, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.3, "expected_contact_quality": 67.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 822862, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6083, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4359, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2876, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1761, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1009, "prob_4_plus": 0.6083, "prob_5_plus": 0.4359, "prob_6_plus": 0.2876, "prob_7_plus": 0.1761, "prob_8_plus": 0.1009, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.118, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 50.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.8, "expected_contact_quality": 93.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 43.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 824564, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.028, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.6, "expected_contact_quality": 104.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 43.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 822700, "pitcher_id": 695418, "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Sal Stewart", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Dane Myers", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 822700, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 33.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Abimelec Ortiz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Abimelec Ortiz", "matchup_score": 55.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.9, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823104, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjustment_delta": -0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "prob_4_plus": 0.5451, "prob_5_plus": 0.3704, "prob_6_plus": 0.2306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1328, "prob_8_plus": 0.0713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 45.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 31.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823020, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.522, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "JJ Wetherholt", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jimmy Crooks", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.5, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jimmy Crooks", "matchup_score": 52.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Church", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.1, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823268, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "prob_4_plus": 0.4311, "prob_5_plus": 0.2636, "prob_6_plus": 0.1465, "prob_7_plus": 0.0749, "prob_8_plus": 0.0356, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823268, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 11.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4152, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2498, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1365, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0686, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.4152, "prob_5_plus": 0.2498, "prob_6_plus": 0.1365, "prob_7_plus": 0.0686, "prob_8_plus": 0.032, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 40.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 64.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 25.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.1, "expected_contact_quality": 84.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-08-09", "game_pk": 823020, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 42.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.064, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "prob_4_plus": 0.4032, "prob_5_plus": 0.2396, "prob_6_plus": 0.1292, "prob_7_plus": 0.064, "prob_8_plus": 0.0295, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake McCarthy", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Cole Carrigg", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "TJ Rumfield", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Karros", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "matchup_score": 40.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 669062, "pitcher_name": "Erik Miller", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }