{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-12", "generated_at": "2026-08-12T08:08:21.987063", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823017, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 94.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.76, "skill_score": 74.8, "opportunity_score": 29.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 99.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8612, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7539, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6263, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4936, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3697, "prob_4_plus": 0.8612, "prob_5_plus": 0.7539, "prob_6_plus": 0.6263, "prob_7_plus": 0.4936, "prob_8_plus": 0.3697, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 94.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.2, "expected_contact_quality": 62.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 93.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 174.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 90.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 822779, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 45.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.785, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "prob_4_plus": 0.785, "prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.986, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 63.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 52.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.4, "expected_contact_quality": 111.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 824562, "pitcher_id": 622491, "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "prob_4_plus": 0.7641, "prob_5_plus": 0.6195, "prob_6_plus": 0.4699, "prob_7_plus": 0.3345, "prob_8_plus": 0.2245, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 82.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 79.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823263, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "prob_4_plus": 0.7568, "prob_5_plus": 0.6101, "prob_6_plus": 0.4597, "prob_7_plus": 0.3248, "prob_8_plus": 0.2163, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.955, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 115.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 53.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.9, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 824241, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 23.3, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 50.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7414, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5906, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.439, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3056, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2002, "prob_4_plus": 0.7414, "prob_5_plus": 0.5906, "prob_6_plus": 0.439, "prob_7_plus": 0.3056, "prob_8_plus": 0.2002, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.3, "expected_contact_quality": 95.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 63.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823511, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "skill_score": 22.3, "opportunity_score": 37.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7229, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5676, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4149, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2837, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1824, "prob_4_plus": 0.7229, "prob_5_plus": 0.5676, "prob_6_plus": 0.4149, "prob_7_plus": 0.2837, "prob_8_plus": 0.1824, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 56.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.9, "expected_contact_quality": 146.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.9, "expected_contact_quality": 145.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823672, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 10.2, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.712, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "prob_4_plus": 0.712, "prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 53.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 96.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 825047, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 12.3, "opportunity_score": 43.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.57, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.131, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.246, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 78.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 74.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823672, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 30.2, "opportunity_score": 56.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.246, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 91.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 822698, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.326, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "prob_4_plus": 0.6462, "prob_5_plus": 0.4775, "prob_6_plus": 0.326, "prob_7_plus": 0.2071, "prob_8_plus": 0.1232, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.7, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823511, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6268, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.456, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1908, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1113, "prob_4_plus": 0.6268, "prob_5_plus": 0.456, "prob_6_plus": 0.306, "prob_7_plus": 0.1908, "prob_8_plus": 0.1113, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 66.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 822779, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 33.2, "opportunity_score": 13.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.451, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "prob_5_plus": 0.451, "prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.986, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.7, "expected_contact_quality": 64.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 824883, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 51.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.28, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "prob_4_plus": 0.6003, "prob_5_plus": 0.4274, "prob_6_plus": 0.28, "prob_7_plus": 0.1702, "prob_8_plus": 0.0967, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.02, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 100.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 44.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.7, "expected_contact_quality": 115.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 824967, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 49.2, "opportunity_score": 37.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 65.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "prob_4_plus": 0.5742, "prob_5_plus": 0.3999, "prob_6_plus": 0.2558, "prob_7_plus": 0.1516, "prob_8_plus": 0.0839, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.075, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 84.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823916, "pitcher_id": 641778, "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "prob_4_plus": 0.5691, "prob_5_plus": 0.3947, "prob_6_plus": 0.2513, "prob_7_plus": 0.1482, "prob_8_plus": 0.0816, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.972, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 46.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 45.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823263, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "prob_4_plus": 0.5538, "prob_5_plus": 0.3791, "prob_6_plus": 0.2379, "prob_7_plus": 0.1382, "prob_8_plus": 0.0749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.955, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny 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"confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "skill_score": 9.2, "opportunity_score": 27.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4604, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2897, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.166, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0876, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.043, "prob_4_plus": 0.4604, "prob_5_plus": 0.2897, "prob_6_plus": 0.166, "prob_7_plus": 0.0876, "prob_8_plus": 0.043, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 34.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.8, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823833, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 4.8, "opportunity_score": 20.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 42.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 52.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 56.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823994, "pitcher_id": 615698, "pitcher_name": "Cal 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materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3788, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2194, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1151, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0554, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0248, "prob_4_plus": 0.3788, "prob_5_plus": 0.2194, "prob_6_plus": 0.1151, "prob_7_plus": 0.0554, "prob_8_plus": 0.0248, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 39.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.1, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 36.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 101.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "game_pk": 823833, "pitcher_id": 669387, "pitcher_name": "Carmen Mlodzinski", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.02, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.02, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3563, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2013, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1028, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0482, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0209, "prob_4_plus": 0.3563, "prob_5_plus": 0.2013, "prob_6_plus": 0.1028, "prob_7_plus": 0.0482, "prob_8_plus": 0.0209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4653.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 45.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 29.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.1, "expected_contact_quality": 120.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687911, "pitcher_name": "Bryan King", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691946, "pitcher_name": "George Klassen", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }