{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-13", "generated_at": "2026-08-13T08:10:15.284264", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 11, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 823508, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8289, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7071, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5694, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3121, "prob_4_plus": 0.8289, "prob_5_plus": 0.7071, "prob_6_plus": 0.5694, "prob_7_plus": 0.4331, "prob_8_plus": 0.3121, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Paul Goldschmidt", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.8, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 73.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.8, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 823995, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 48.1, "opportunity_score": 32.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 75.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 91.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 89.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.4, "expected_contact_quality": 89.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 86.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 823508, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.103, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.6, "expected_contact_quality": 106.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 60.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 823669, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7578, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6114, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4612, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3262, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2174, "prob_4_plus": 0.7578, "prob_5_plus": 0.6114, "prob_6_plus": 0.4612, "prob_7_plus": 0.3262, "prob_8_plus": 0.2174, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.0, "expected_contact_quality": 98.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 71.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 67.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 69.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 822696, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "prob_4_plus": 0.7448, "prob_5_plus": 0.5949, "prob_6_plus": 0.4434, "prob_7_plus": 0.3097, "prob_8_plus": 0.2036, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 69.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 58.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 823669, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.592, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.946, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 83.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 89.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 70.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 69.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 824561, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6253, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4543, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3045, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1895, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1104, "prob_4_plus": 0.6253, "prob_5_plus": 0.4543, "prob_6_plus": 0.3045, "prob_7_plus": 0.1895, "prob_8_plus": 0.1104, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 44.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 40.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.7, "expected_contact_quality": 100.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 111.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 822776, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "prob_4_plus": 0.5624, "prob_5_plus": 0.3878, "prob_6_plus": 0.2453, "prob_7_plus": 0.1437, "prob_8_plus": 0.0786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 59.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.1, "expected_contact_quality": 107.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.9, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 824561, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.026, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 822696, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 41.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.5, "expected_contact_quality": 89.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.1, "expected_contact_quality": 137.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "game_pk": 824238, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4487, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2792, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1581, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0824, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0399, "prob_4_plus": 0.4487, "prob_5_plus": 0.2792, "prob_6_plus": 0.1581, "prob_7_plus": 0.0824, "prob_8_plus": 0.0399, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.6, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 45.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677952, "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }