{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-08-15", "generated_at": "2026-08-15T08:07:34.556105", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823671, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 63.6, "opportunity_score": 76.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 15.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.406, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "prob_4_plus": 0.8128, "prob_5_plus": 0.6846, "prob_6_plus": 0.5429, "prob_7_plus": 0.406, "prob_8_plus": 0.2873, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 93.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.5, "expected_contact_quality": 78.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "matchup_score": 74.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 70.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823184, "pitcher_id": 657277, "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 75.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.919, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 79.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.5, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824966, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 51.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 87.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.1, "expected_contact_quality": 80.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 75.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 72.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823914, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.785, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "prob_4_plus": 0.785, "prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 78.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.4, "expected_contact_quality": 101.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 822775, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 74.1, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.493, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "prob_4_plus": 0.7802, "prob_5_plus": 0.6405, "prob_6_plus": 0.493, "prob_7_plus": 0.3566, "prob_8_plus": 0.2434, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.937, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.9, "expected_contact_quality": 73.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 822941, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.762, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.467, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "prob_4_plus": 0.762, "prob_5_plus": 0.6169, "prob_6_plus": 0.467, "prob_7_plus": 0.3317, "prob_8_plus": 0.2221, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 92.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 75.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 92.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824644, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 69.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.572, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "prob_5_plus": 0.572, "prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.986, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 74.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.1, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 67.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824400, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 52.1, "opportunity_score": 16.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.965, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "prob_4_plus": 0.7169, "prob_5_plus": 0.5602, "prob_6_plus": 0.4074, "prob_7_plus": 0.2769, "prob_8_plus": 0.1769, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.8, "expected_contact_quality": 103.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823588, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.386, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.258, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.162, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.4, "expected_contact_quality": 114.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824966, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 28.6, "opportunity_score": 43.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.246, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 65.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.9, "expected_contact_quality": 101.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 60.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823347, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 23.7, "opportunity_score": 52.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 45.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.137, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "prob_4_plus": 0.6825, "prob_5_plus": 0.5191, "prob_6_plus": 0.3661, "prob_7_plus": 0.2407, "prob_8_plus": 0.1485, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.953, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 86.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.4, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 79.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 89.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 75.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.7, "expected_contact_quality": 105.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824884, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 19.9, "opportunity_score": 35.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6633, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4969, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3445, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2224, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1346, "prob_4_plus": 0.6633, "prob_5_plus": 0.4969, "prob_6_plus": 0.3445, "prob_7_plus": 0.2224, "prob_8_plus": 0.1346, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.8, "expected_contact_quality": 90.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824480, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 27.9, "opportunity_score": 65.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.069, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 67.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 109.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824157, "pitcher_id": 669713, "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.4, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 145.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824480, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 11.0, "opportunity_score": 13.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6207, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4493, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2999, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1858, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1078, "prob_4_plus": 0.6207, "prob_5_plus": 0.4493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2999, "prob_7_plus": 0.1858, "prob_8_plus": 0.1078, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.069, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 64.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.2, "expected_contact_quality": 94.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 64.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824884, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 71.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 50.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 103.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 47.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 104.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.1, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823184, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "prob_4_plus": 0.5398, "prob_5_plus": 0.3651, "prob_6_plus": 0.2262, "prob_7_plus": 0.1295, "prob_8_plus": 0.0692, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.919, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 62.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.2, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824157, "pitcher_id": 676106, "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 36.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.112, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.058, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 34.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.4, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 823588, "pitcher_id": 695418, "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.62, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4757, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3037, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1767, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0948, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0473, "prob_4_plus": 0.4757, "prob_5_plus": 0.3037, "prob_6_plus": 0.1767, "prob_7_plus": 0.0948, "prob_8_plus": 0.0473, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7425.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 44.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 107.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 109.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 36.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.2, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-08-15", "game_pk": 824644, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 2.6, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3172, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.171, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.0832, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0371, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0153, "prob_4_plus": 0.3172, "prob_5_plus": 0.171, "prob_6_plus": 0.0832, "prob_7_plus": 0.0371, "prob_8_plus": 0.0153, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.986, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 46.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 33.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.2, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 675512, "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680755, "pitcher_name": "Braydon Fisher", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }